Colombia can lose 15,000 jobs in two years And exports would fall 8 % if the United States maintains the 10 % tariff to the country, according to a study conducted by the National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF) and the Colombian Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM).
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The analysis focuses on the projection of the implications of maintaining that tariff for 2025 and 2026, evaluating variables such as exports, growth, employment, investment and inflationSaid the Amcham in a statement.
“The loss of 15,000 jobs is projected towards the end of 2026, due to the lower demand for labor by export companies and a fall of 0.1 percentage points in private investment”they secured the Amcham and the ANIF.
The tariff package released by US President Donald Trump, earlier this month establishes a 10 % tariff for products imported from Colombia and most Latin American countries, the lowest of all announced.
According to Anif and Amcham’s study, if that tax is maintained, Colombian exports to the US. “8 %could fall, equivalent to 1,147 million dollars between 2025 and 2026”.
“This reduction would especially affect the non -energy mining sector, which represented 59.9 % of the total exported to the US in 2024”, explained the information.
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Duty
Negative impact
Regarding economic growth, the report estimates a decrease in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2.8 % to 2.7 % in 2025, with an accumulated loss of 4.7 billion pesos (about 1,092 million dollars) in revenue during the first two years.
In terms of inflation, If Colombia responded with similar tariffs on US products, This could increase to 4.4 % in 2025, compared to 4.2 % projected on the base stage.
This would directly affect the prices of key supplies for the national industry, especially in sensitive sectors such as protein production such as Eggs, chicken, pork and fishsince 70 % of the imported goods from the US are not produced locally or not in sufficient quantities to replace domestic demand, the study detailed.
Therefore, the president of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, emphasized the need for the country to count “With a pragmatic, strategic and proactive commercial plan that can mitigate these effects, enhancing sectors with comparative advantages and consolidating Colombia as a reliable, agile and competitive supplier in the US market.”
“We must take advantage of the opportunities, but eliminate the risks. A joint work between the government and the private sector is fundamental to exclude Colombia from the 10 %tariff measure, using the channels offered by the current free trade agreement with the United States, which allow flexibility to handle tensions,”the executive said.
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EFE
