Two and a half years before the next national election, the stage is competitive Y opened between two blocks, as well as in the second round in 2019, and the referendum of March 27 last. April’s photo shows that, if the elections were today, “it would be difficult to repeat a scenario of wide advantage of the government coalition, as was the first round of 2019”, with 15 points of advantage, indicates the consultancy Teams In a poll released Tuesday in Underlined (channel 10).
The wide front leads the preferences (35%)followed by the National Party (25%). Farther, for the Colorado Party (5%) Y Open Council (2%); the other parties add one%. There is a high level of undecided (25%) and of blank or annulled vote (7%).
The Broad Front exceeds by a few points the sum of the parties of the government coalition (35% to 32%). Therefore, the “photo” of the moment once again shows a parity scenario, with a high number of undecided voters and people who would vote blank or nullified, the report indicates. With the current data, either of the two blocs could obtain a legislative majority, depending on its ability to attract undecided voters.
For Teams, “the leadership and the candidacies will be decisive”, even within the government coalition. “We must not lose sight of the fact that 2024 will be an election of profound renewal of candidacies in most of the parties.”
Evolution
The Broad Front is located in a strip “of reasonable stability”, according to Teams. Its current result, 35%, is practically the center of the axis in which it has moved in the last two years. It was somewhat below that in the third quarter of 2020 when it marked 33%, and on the contrary it reached its maximum in the last quarter of 2021, when it reached 38%.
The National Party, on the other hand, has lost some ground. Through 2020 and 2021 he had stood at or above 30% (surpassing his 2019 vote) but, entering 2022, the results show him one notch below that line, 28% in the first quarter, and 25% in the April measurement.
The Colorado Party and Open Town Hall have been alternating in third place, with small differences between them, and without exceeding 5% of accessions, says the consultant. None have managed to find paths of party growth at this stage.
the survey
The query was made between April 23 and May 7, 2022from a multimode system. They interviewed 1,195 people over 18 years of age and over from all over Uruguay, combining 690 face-to-face surveys and 505 telephone surveys through cell phones.
The question used was: “As you know, in 2024 there will be national elections to elect the president and parliamentarians. If the elections were today, which party would you vote for?”. followed by a spontaneous response.
The maximum margin of error expected for a probabilistic sample of 1,195 cases is ±2.8% considering a confidence interval of 95%.
The consultant explains that the survey is financed by multiple clients: the media, social organizations, private companies, international organizations and political parties, among others.
