The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its 64th report with analysis and data on the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained up to on Sunday, November 21, 2021, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
According to the new report, at the national level there is a reduction of approximately 1% in the number of new infected daily compared to the previous week. Thus, the burden indicator reached 12.0 new cases per approximately 100,000 inhabitants, still remaining in critical condition.
In fact, as Guillermo Marshall, pro-rector of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, emphasizes, “this week there has been a brake on the growth of the pandemic at the national level, which is good news. Also during the week a significant contraction in the contagion dynamics began in the Metropolitan Region ”.
At the local level, Aysén (44.0), Atacama (34.1), Los Lagos (22.8) and Biobío (20.42) are the regions with the highest numbers, and Magallanes (6.9), O ́Higgins (7.0), Arica and Parinacota (9.14), and Metropolitana (9.3) are the regions with numbers less than ten new daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
On the other hand, in terms of transmission, the effective reproduction number (R), which represents the average number of people contagious in each case, has decreased by 10% compared to the previous week at the national level, standing around the value of 1.0, which represents stability in new cases. At the local level, the only region with an R significantly lower than 1.0 is the Metropolitan, while the regions that have an R value significantly higher than 1.0 are Atacama (1.43), Coquimbo (1.09), Maule (1.12), Ñuble (1.17), Biobío (1.17), La Araucanía (1.14) and Los Lagos (1.28).
Mauricio Lima, researcher in population dynamics and academic at the Faculty of Biological Sciences of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, emphasized that “after two months of a new expansion of the epidemic, its growth seems to begin to stop with load levels 50% lower than those registered during the wave experienced last semester. Having been able to reduce the burden of infected to very low levels last winter, vaccination and cultural changes already widely adopted by the population seem to have resulted in an effective combination to mitigate this latest wave ”.
In terms of testing, the new report indicates that the total number of PCR tests reported per thousand inhabitants per week at the national level decreases to 21.8 compared to 22.8 the previous week. “We observe that the testing capacity has remained between 19-22 PCR tests since the last week of October, reaching levels comparable with the maximum reached in the pandemic in the months of March and June 2021. This increase in the number of tests PCR carried out at the national level also coincides with a sustained increase in the number of cases that we have observed since the beginning of September 2021, “they explain in the report.
At the local level, the regions with the highest level of testing per week per inhabitant are Aysén (44.7), Atacama (36.8), Magallanes (33.6), Los Lagos (32.7), Antofagasta (29.0 ), and Arica and Parinacota (31.4). For their part, the regions with the lowest level of testing are O’Higgins (14.6), La Araucanía (17.4), Valparaíso (18.3) and Metropolitana (17.5).
Meanwhile, the test positivity, which indicates the fraction of reported PCR tests that are positive, reaches an average of 3.4% in the last observed week, leaving the ICOVID traffic light yellow. It should be noted that “this indicator shows a progressive deterioration since the beginning of September when it remained at around 1% (the lowest level since the start of the pandemic). This level of positivity has not been observed since July, “says the report.
Likewise, the regions with the highest positivity are Aysén (6.7% test positive), Los Lagos (4.8%), Atacama (4.7%), Valparaíso (4.6%), and Biobío (4.4 %).
Regarding traceability, the new ICOVID report indicates that the proportion of early consultations, an indicator that estimates the search for care within 48 hours from the appearance of covid-19 symptoms, is 58% nationwide. In other words, four out of ten consultations for confirmed cases were made after two days from the onset of symptoms.
Meanwhile, regarding the examination and laboratory time at the national level, the proportion of PCR test results and antigens reported to the health authority within 24 hours from the notification as a suspected case in Epivigila, has shown a sustained decrease since the beginning of September ( when it reached a peak of 84% coinciding with weeks of decline in the burden of infected people). From there it has been steadily declining, showing 72.8% compliance in the reported week.
Finally, regarding the early confirmation of cases at the national level, an indicator that shows a proportion of notifications that are made within 72 hours from the sample collection, reveals a sustained improvement since the beginning of March of this year, when it only reached 30 % performance. In the week reported in this report, this indicator is around 56.7%. Undoubtedly, the reduction in laboratory times with the incorporation of rapid antigen tests and PCR, has helped in the acceleration of this chain of processes.
In the dimension of hospital capacity, the new report indicates that the average occupation of ICU beds nationwide for any pathology reached 89.8% in the observed week, remaining in the red color of the ICOVID traffic light since mid-October. At the local level, meanwhile, the regions of Valparaíso (95.8%), Metropolitana (94.0%), and Antofagasta (91.8%) remain in the red zone, while the occupancy of ICU beds in Tarapacá increases ( 90.8%), Biobío (88.9%), and Coquimbo (88.9%). The greatest increase was observed in Los Lagos, which went from yellow (76.5%) to red (88.8%).
Along these lines, Catterina Ferreccio, epidemiologist and academic at the Department of Public Health of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, highlights that “this week there is good and bad news. The good news is that the growth of the pandemic has slowed, there is a decrease in hospitalizations and the vaccination coverage of those under 18 years of age increased. The bad news is that we maintain a high daily load of new cases and that we have not been able to substantially improve the early identification of infectious cases, a key aspect in the control of transmission ”.
For its part, the proportion of ICU beds with patients hospitalized for covid-19 remains relatively low at the national level, reaching 29.9% in the last week observed. It should be noted that this figure doubles the rate that was at the beginning of October when it was around 15%. The region with the highest hospital demand associated with critical covid-19 patients this week was Aysén with 41.4%, but with a low occupancy of the total ICU beds.
Meanwhile, the weekly variation rate in covid-19 hospitalizations, an indicator that is only available at the national level and measures the relative change in hospital demand for total covid-19 patients, in beds of all types: basic, medium, ICU, ICU, shows in this last week a systematic decrease in total hospitalizations for covid-19, from a peak of 15% increase on November 14 to a drop of 6% on November 23.
Likewise, the indicator of average daily hospitalizations of covid-19 patients in ICU beds disaggregated by age increased at the national level in all age groups, highlighting the increase in people aged 50 to 69 years as they are the ones with the highest increase in absolute and relative terms. In this group, in the first week of October there were 167 hospitalizations for covid-19, rising to 327 (95.8%) as of November 23. On those same dates, those under 50 years of age rose from 101 to 144 (42.6%) hospitalizations, while those over 70 years of age rose from 105 to 177 (68.6%). However, when considering the weekly averages for the last week, a clear drop in covid-19 hospitalizations can be seen in both the younger and older groups, with a less marked drop in the 50-69 age group.
Likewise, the weekly rate of hospitalizations for covid-19 has remained stable in the last week at around 3.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, this according to information from the Clinical Bed Management Unit (UGCC) of the Ministry of Health .
On the other hand, with respect to the coverage of complete inoculation with two-dose vaccines, it is 91.3%, 93.3%, 83.3%, and 50.6% for people older than 70 years, between 50 and 69 years old, between 18 and 49 years old, and under 18 years old, respectively according to the most recent date available (November 23). Only the group under 18 years old showed a significant increase.
Also, it should be noted that coverage with a complete vaccination scheme over the total population reaches 81%, one of the highest in the world. However, there are three regions below the national average: Arica and Parinacota (78.5%), Tarapacá (76.0%) and the Metropolitan (76.3%). While the regions with the highest coverage are Ñuble (89.1%), O’Higgins (87.8%), Magallanes (87.5%), Maule (86.4%) and Aysén (86.3%).
Finally, the indicator of mortality from covid-19 according to age groups, with data reported by the Department of Health Statistics and Information, DEIS, (confirmed by laboratory and probable) shows that those over 70 years of age who died from covid-19 from 44 weekly people at the end of October they reached 94 weekly deaths as of November 21. The other two minor groups did not show an increase in mortality, with 24 and 8 weekly cases in the groups 50 to 69 and those under 50 years of age, respectively.
More information about data and the full report here.
