The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its 72nd report with analysis and data on the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained up to on January 22, 2022, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
According to the latest report, a significant increase in new cases persists in all regions of the country. The estimated cases, according to the date of onset of symptoms and corrected for lag, grow by 85% when comparing the weeks of January 9 and 16.
Regarding the burden of disease, that is, the number of infected per 100,000 inhabitants, between the week of January 16 and 22, growth is reported, being 86% higher the previous week and 300% higher at values of two weeks ago. This value reaches an approximate daily average value of 99 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
All the regions are at the red threshold values of the ICOVID traffic light (that is, over 50 new daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants), with ten of them being over 100 new cases. “The regions with the highest level of burden (contagions) are at the extremes of the country, that is, Arica and Parinacota (217), Tarapacá (307), Antofagasta (142) and Magallanes (232), so we must continue to maintain the self-care,” said Andrea Rodriguez, vice-rector for Research and Development at the University of Concepción.
The transmission rate, which considers the average number of infections generated by an infected case, shows that the virus continues to spread, with a value of around 1.7 nationwide. Although it represents a high level of expansion, this figure shows a relative drop of 6% compared to the previous week. This indicator is above 1.2 in all the regions of the country, reaching values above 2 in five regions: Atacama (2.2), Coquimbo (2.0), O’Higgins (2.1), Maule (2, 1) and Aysen (2.2).
This week’s analysis suggests that PCR positivity rose to 12.7% (red color at the iCOVID traffic light). “It should be noted that this indicator has experienced a sustained rise (last week the average value was 8.7% and four weeks ago, 2.2%)”, the report states.
At the national level, there are ten regions with positivity greater than 10% (red color), and the rest are all orange (indicator between 5% and 10%). The national upward trend for this indicator is replicated in all regions of the country, among which three stand out with positivity above 20%: Magallanes (22.4%), Antofagasta (21.7%) and Arica and Parinacota ( 20.4%).
Meanwhile, the PCR tests per thousand inhabitants -data that allows measuring the testing capacity- at the national level reached the value 30.3, which is the record figure in the entire pandemic, higher by 15.7% than the value of last week and 75.0% to the value of four weeks ago. There are three regions with the indicator above 50 tests per thousand inhabitants: Magallanes (58.3), Arica and Parinacota (55.4) and Tarapacá (55.2); and only O’Higgins has the indicator below 20, namely 12.9 (however, this value is 19.2% higher than last week’s).
Regarding traceability, the ICOVID report shows that the early consultation of cases -two days or less since symptoms began- with data available from January 2 to 8, has been maintained in relation to the previous week, with 59.3% at the national level. Meanwhile, the examination and laboratory time -percentage of tests that were reported to the Ministry of Health in one day or less from the medical consultation- at the national level this indicator has exceeded the threshold of 80%, turning green at the traffic light ICOVID. The early confirmation of cases reached 65.7% in the last week with available data (December 26 to January 1), a value similar to that observed in the previous week.
With regard to hospital capacity, the percentage of ICU bed occupancy globally remains at values above 85%, although slightly lower than the 87% registered last week and the 88.5% four weeks ago. Of these, those used by critical COVID-19 patients registered a value of 19.7%, lower than last week (21.4%) and also four weeks ago (29.1%). At the regional level, the indicator registers values similar to those of the previous week, fluctuating between 6.7% (Arica and Parinacota) and 32.0% (Biobío).
The report also details that in all age groups there is a decrease in the occupancy of ICU beds when compared to last week. For the group of people aged 70 and over, the decrease is -2.6% (with 129 average cases per week), while for the group between 50 and 69 years of age, the decrease is -11.1% (195 average cases per week). weekly) and in the group under 50 years of age, the drop is -4.4% (78 weekly average cases).
Regarding mortality from COVID-19 according to age groups, the report shows -in the week of January 9 to 15- an increase in the number of deaths (129), mainly in people aged 70 and over compared to the previous week . In the group of people under 50 years of age, a slight increase in deaths begins; however, weekly deaths are 10 times lower than those observed in the 2020 outbreaks.
On vaccination, the report warns that national coverage currently reaches 70%. “Under the assumption of an effectiveness of 65% for infection, this implies that there is a large number (more than half of Chilean men and women) of the population susceptible to being infected, at least slightly, by the new omicron variant” , closes report No. 72 of ICOVID Chile.
Indeed, as Paula Margozzini, an epidemiologist and academic at the UC School of Medicine, explains, “the booster is very necessary to protect against infection and complications from the omicron variant. Two doses are not enough. A very small fraction of those infected will require hospitalization, however, if the volume of infected is very large, this fraction may be too large for the hospital system. So it is worthwhile for all of us to help prevent this volume from continuing to grow. Wearing a mask, testing yourself in the face of any symptom, even if it is mild, isolating yourself immediately and giving notice, are responsible and supportive citizen behaviors in times of pandemic.”
More information on data and the full report at: http://www.icovidchile.cl/
