The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released today (9) a new forecast for the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for this year. The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), carried out in February this year, estimated production of 298 million tons this year.
The forecast is 1.3% lower (or 3.9 million tons less) than that estimated in the previous survey, in January. The reduction is mainly due to the drought caused by La Niña, in Rio Grande do Sul, the third largest grain producer in the country, according to the IBGE.
Despite this, this year’s harvest should be 13.3% higher (34.9 million tons more) than last year’s.
The decline from January to February is mainly due to the reduction in forecasts for soybean crops (-1.7% compared to January), rice (-2.5%), corn 1st crop (-2.5%) and corn 2nd harvest (-0.4%).
Even with the forecast adjustments, increases are expected, in relation to 2022, in the soybean (21.3%), corn (10.2%) and herbaceous cotton (1.4%) harvests. “The vintage [de 298 milhões de toneladas] is a record in the IBGE historical series. The production of soy and corn is also a record in the historical series”, says the institute’s researcher, Carlos Barradas.
On the other hand, falls are expected in crops such as rice (-6%) and wheat (-13.8%).
In relation to the harvested area, the IBGE estimates increases, in relation to last year, in soybean (4.8%), corn (4.1%) and herbaceous cotton (1.2%) crops. Decreases are expected in areas to be harvested in rice (-5.8%) and wheat (-2.8%) crops.
