Humberto Ortega Saavedra (HOS), brother of the dictator of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, warned that after the death of the leader, power has no guarantees of succession, neither in the Sandinista party nor in the Ortega-Murillo family, which is why he believes that The Army will lead a kind of custody of internal order until elections are called.
HOS, who is convalescing from a series of heart ailments in his residence in Managua, as he himself revealed, gave an extensive interview to the media Infobae, in which he refers to various aspects of the world situation but above all to the crisis of Nicaragua, the complicity of the Army with the situation of 2018 and his relationship with his brother Daniel, whom he recognized holds power in the country in a totalitarian manner.
Death of the dictator would generate a “power vacuum”
For Humberto, 14 months younger than his brother, the current dictator of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, 78 years old, “when there is an authoritarian, dictatorial type of power like the current one (in Nicaragua), which depends greatly on the figure of a leader who exercises the Presidency, in the absence of this, it is very difficult for there to be continuity of the immediate power group.
“For what reason,” HOS asks, and is immediately answered: “Because the same authoritarian, personalist, top-down tendency to command, has castrated the transmission belts of the party. The (Sandinista) party currently has no spare. They are there, not because of a mystique, but because they are there as officials, many wanting to do good, but most of all, having benefits from that governmental and political participation.
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“If Daniel Ortega is missing, for me, Humberto Ortega, there is no possibility that anyone from that power group can exert influence in a process…”, says the tyrant’s brother. And he emphasizes that “no one” has the capacity to inherit power, to generalize that neither within the party nor in the Ortega-Murillo family is there anyone with the leadership capacity within Sandinismo to assume power and control it.
In that sense, he warns that in the sudden absence of Daniel Ortega “there would first be enormous confusion and impossibility, for me, for the civil part of the government and the party to assume solid power. The Sandinista institutions in the government or the party would not have, in my view, the capacity to fill that void. The only thing that can solve this vacuum, and prevent there from being anarchy and chaos in the country, is the Army. First of all, the Army. Coordinated with the National Police. And look for a solution in the short term, perhaps a year or less, to call an electoral process, whether it is the one scheduled for 2026.
Relations with the dictator have improved
The former head of the Army has retired from public service since 1995, when he handed over the leadership of the Army to make way for a succession every five years as part of the professionalization of the institution. A process that the dictator Ortega definitively buried when he reformed the Military Code to keep the current commander in chief of arms, Julio César Avilés, in office and guarantee loyalty in the military corps.
Of his relationship with his brother, HOS said that it has improved since the worsening of his health condition.
The retired general stated that as a result of his illness, his brother reestablished his meetings with him. «…now communication is more natural, fluid. Which has been constructive, timely, for exchanges about the complex and difficult developing global crisis. We exchanged points of view, encouraged to contribute to overcoming the crisis, the serious problems that afflict all of Nicaragua, particularly since 2018.
Likewise, when asked about how the world political situation and the “new distribution” that world powers could negotiate will affect Nicaragua, HOS assures that there will be a direct impact “if we align ourselves with any of the world power blocs.”
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In that sense, the former member of the Sandinista national leadership recommended that They must maintain mutually beneficial relations with any of these powers such as the United States, Russia or China, and that the decision for Nicaragua to have a “deeper” integration with Russia or China should not lead to clashes with the United States, ” power with which we have great advantages and benefits within the framework of the economic and commercial treaties in force,” he highlighted.
Likewise, he recommended that his brother “not fall into the trap of the extremists who encourage the permanent and frontal attack on the United States to provoke an imperial reaction in the tense world conflict, which could be a pretext for surgical strikes, to supplant Alba governments, Nicaragua in particular.
Recently, in an opinion article published in the newspaper La Prensa, HOS warned of the possibility that the US, if deemed essential, could carry out a “surgical, lightning” military operation to overthrow its brother.
The youngest of the Ortega family explained that this surgical operation would be a coup “to supplant the established power, and not to start with this an anarchic process or a war of resistance like the one we had in the past. The United States does not want anarchic problems here in the region, much less a prolonged war. It would simply be like removing a tooth that is in the way, keeping the teeth intact. Remove the most decomposed piece.
In the interview with Infobae, the retired military man said that he has warned of this possibility precisely because of the risks of this in case the powers, in this new global distribution, become more tense and the Ortega regime gets in the way.
However, he noted that “in power in Washington, some are seeking a pragmatic solution with the government of Daniel Ortega, in the uncertain dynamics of day-to-day life or in the face of Nicaragua’s electoral process in 2026.”
Elections: only way to resolve crisis
The Infobae journalist consulted HOS about the elections as a way to resolve the crisis, in a regime that does not even allow religious meetings. The dictator’s brother believes that the way to achieve this is to “sit down” (to dialogue) the opposing parties full of resentment and distrust.
That process must begin, says Humberto, with deep awareness in “the current power group of the deviation from the democratic process.”
And HOS assures that within the Sandinista Front there is a group close to the dictator that is “dogmatic” and “that group, together with a series of opportunist people, who were even anti-Sandinistas and Somocistas, are now allies of those people and tolerate them no because they believe in them, but simply because they are useful to them.
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He warned them that “whether they like it or not, that group of power has to seek negotiation with what they permanently say is the worst enemy of humanity, the United States, and they attack it viscerally. They will have to sit with that one, and with that one they will have to negotiate, and with all those who oppose them and who hate each other, particularly those who have remained belligerent after the 2018 crisis. Only with those components: the United States, that group of radical power, and the opposition leaders dispersed, and equally radical and directionless, only with those can we seek a way out.
According to the former Sandinista guerrilla, the only way out of the crisis that the country has left is a “reunion” between all the forces of society, particularly the policies that are most full of hate and polarized. For this, the initiative must be led by the regime and President Daniel Ortega in particular. The current global conflict makes such a process of seeking an agreement more urgent now and for the 2026 electoral year. The United States can pragmatically contribute in this direction.
Army was complicit in the massacre, HOS acknowledges
Regarding the participation in the deadly 2018 repression of the Nicaraguan Army, of which he was its first chief and founder, retired General Humberto Ortega says that “the biggest sin of the Army, unjust, which damages its image and professionalism , was the tolerance with armed civilians, particularly with paramilitaries, who their security and intelligence apparatus had registered, who knew where they were, who knew where they moved and who even tolerated them arming themselves.
«I cannot say that the Army armed them (the paramilitaries). No. I have no proof of that. But I can say that the capacity it has always had, since the time of Somoza when it was one of the best security offices, to realize where civilians obtained weapons, organized, shot and killed. So for me, the Army, in fact, was complicit in a confusing situation that led to enormous responsibility for pain and death, HOS maintained.
