These estimates only contemplate the isolated effects of each variable, not including its interactions or other factors that influence collection, spending and indebtedness. Legislators are also useful to adjust the original proposal and try to place the largest amount of resources to the sectors where they are most needed.
“By 2025 and 2026, we will maintain the fiscal consolidation trajectory, aware that we face a complex international environment that requires balance between fiscal responsibility and promotion of economic activity. The gradual adjustment strategy we propose is designed to preserve economic dynamism, promote investment and streng Finance, when presenting the Economic package In the Deputy Chamber on Monday night.
The base forecast is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) records an expansion of between 1.8% and 2.8%.
What if the Mexican economy grows more than expected?
An objective of all countries is that their respective economies grow, since this will allow their populations to access greater goods that allow them to meet both individual and group needs.
A half -point growth in GDP would leave a spill of 29.4 billion pesos, since having a greater economic expansion, the government would obtain an extra in the collection of taxes such as VAT and ISR.
What happens if the dollar rises more than expected in 2026?
The Ministry of Finance contemplates that the weight-dollar exchange rate is located in 19.3 units per green ticket, level slightly less than 19.6 that would close in 2025.
Only an appreciation of 20 cents in the national currency would have an impact on oil revenues, which would decrease because Mexico is an exporter of this energy that is quoted in dollars: Hacienda estimates that the amount would be at 8.3 billion pesos (MDP) lower than provided in its original proposal.
There would also be a decrease in the financial cost of the debt because the value in pesos of these liabilities are called dollars. The impact would be 3,400 MDP.
What happens if Mexico produces more oil?
By 2026, oil production is estimated to be aligned with the aim of 1.8 million barrels per day (MBD). And an increase of 50,000 barrels per day on average would generate a benefit of 23,700 MDP, since the largest oil production would raise oil revenues due to the increase in sales of this energy.
These instruments presented by the Treasury contribute to mitigating the impact of possible decreases in budgetary income, volatility in financial markets or the materialization of natural contingencies, which robustizes the state’s capacity to respond to adverse scenarios.
