At 10 am this Tuesday, January 31, The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) will disclose data on the Colombian labor market corresponding to December 2022, which also calculates the consolidated figure for the previous year.
(In 2023, 208 million people would be unemployed.)
In November, the annual unemployment rate stood at 9.5%, a figure that represents a decrease of 2.0 percentage points compared to the same month in 2021, which was 11.5%.
Although the annualized data for December registered a decrease compared to the same month in 2021, forecasts suggest that the figure will increase a little in December and that in 2023 it will continue to increase.
In the latest updates of BBVA Research projections, the bank estimated that the unemployment rate in 2023 will be 11.2%, while for 2022 they calculate 10%and in the case of urban unemployment this would be 12% this year, above the indicator of 10.5% estimated for the end of 2022.
(Unemployment in Colombia reaches 9.5% in November).
From the bank it is expected that this year the GDP will grow 0.7% and that the economy will reduce its capacity to create new employment and this will be more concentrated in the informal sector, affecting the capacity of private consumption.
For his part, in an interview with Portafolio, the director of Fedesarrollo, Luis Fernando Mejía, said that there is already a deterioration in the generation of employment and therefore, an increase in the unemployment rate, since the seasonally adjusted unemployment figure ( the one that isolates the calendar effects to compare it with the previous months) in October was 10.5%, and that of November was 10.8%, so it is estimated that in December it will be close to this same level.
(Labor market: this is how the country did in November 2022).
According to Mejía, in 2023 “We are surely going to have less dynamic job creation due to growth that could be substantially below that of 2022, and it is likely that the unemployment rate will deteriorate”an indicator that according to Mejía will be even higher than 11%.
Most analysts consulted estimate that the annual unemployment figure in Colombia is between 10 and 11%.
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