With the end of July and the beginning of the final stretch towards the legislative elections of October, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) published its seventh survey of market expectations (REM) of the year, a report that brings together the projections of 41 consultants, research centers and financial entities on the main macroeconomic variables of the dollar.
Among them, the official exchange rate for December 2025, which according to the consensus of the analysts, will be located around $ 1,405 per dollarmarking a rise of $ 100 compared to the previous report.
The new estimate represents an interannual variation of 37.6%, which implies a more accelerated weight depreciation than that projected by the Government in the draft of the 2026 budget, where a exchange rate of $ 1,229 was anticipated by the end of the year.
The adjustment in expectations occurs in a context of greater exchange volatility, with the dollar Financial (counted with liquidation) climbing from $ 1,203 to more than $ 1,350 in July. By August, the average projected by analysts is $ 1,315, while the group of the ten most accurate forecasts of the REM, the so -called “Top 10”, estimates a slightly lower value, of $ 1,304.
For December, this same group adjusts its forecast to $ 1,409, just above the median general. Despite the increase in the exchange rate, analysts agree that monthly inflation will remain below 2% during the second semester.
For July, 1.8% monthly was projected, and for August the same level is expected. Core inflation, which excludes seasonal and regulated prices, would be 1.9% in July and 1.8% in August, with a descending trend towards the end of the year.
Growth projections and fees
As for economic activity, the Rem It anticipates a quarterly growth of 0.8% between April and June, a deceleration to 0.5% in the third quarter, and a slight improvement to 0.6% in the last stretch of the year. In annual terms, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow 5% in 2025, both in the median and among the most precise forecasts.
Regarding interest rates, the TAMAR, reference for fixed -Wholesale Term deposits, would be 34.85% annual nominal in August, with a monthly effective rate of 2.9%. For December, a decrease to 29.5% nominal is projected, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.5%.
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