The recent announcement of the Government On the non -intervention of the Central Bank in the exchange market, it has generated a significant impact on the price of the dollar, accelerating its collapse. This decision, framed in the agreement signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), establishes that the Central Bank (BCRA) will only intervene if the dollar reaches the floor of the flotation band, set at $ 1,000.
This approach has unleashed a series of reactions in the markets and in various sectors of the economy. The signed agreement of the Government With the IMF it contemplates the implementation of a scheme of flotation bands for the exchange rate, with a range that ranges between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400.
Within this framework, the BCRA It has the power to intervene in exceptional situations, but the government has decided not to do so while the price is maintained inside the band. According to President Javier Milei, this strategy seeks to demonstrate market confidence in the new exchange scheme.
The agreement also establishes that the Central Bank You must buy about USD 5,000 million to June, but these purchases will only be made if the dollar touches the band’s floor. This position has generated expectations of a greater offer of dollars in the market, which has contributed to the collapse of the price.
From the announcement, the dollar has shown a downward trend. The retail exchange rate perforated the $ 1,200, while the wholesaler closed at $ 1,135, marking a significant drop compared to the level prior to the announcement. This situation has led the agro -exporters to accelerate the liquidation of currencies, taking advantage of the lower tax load and the decrease in the exchange rate.
On the other hand, the strategy of the Government It includes a rise in rates by banks, which now offer a 38% yield in pesos. This approach seeks to encourage placement in pesos and complement the non -intervention policy in the exchange market.
Divided opinions
The decision not to intervene has generated divided opinions. While some sectors value government confidence in the market and the stability it could generate, others question the risks associated with a dollar collapse.
The decline in retentions, which expires in June, has also been subject to debate, since it could influence the dynamics of the exchange market. In addition, the position of Government It has led supermarkets to stop price remarkation, which could have a positive impact on mass consumption. However, the devaluation of the official exchange rate has been less than expected, which raises questions about its effect on the economy.
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