If the climate does not generate any headaches in the final stage of the growth of the soy and the harvest is carried out without great difficulties, the main The country’s agricultural crop will have a significant increase in foreign exchange earnings from exports this year. This was estimated by the latest report on foreign trade in goods for February released this Wednesday by the Uruguay XXI Institute.
In a context of a rise in the international price of soybeans, the Uruguayan production of the oilseed would increase 50% in 2022, which means that, if the price remains at a level similar to the current one (US$/ton 550-600), soybean exports will reach record figures similar to those of 2014.
According to the Uruguay XXI report, tfter several weeks of scarce rainfall, from the second half of January 2022, heavy rains were recorded in a large part of Uruguayan territory. “This allowed a good development of the crops, which have good yield potential, with the exception of the north of the country, which is facing a strong drought due to the water deficit that has been registered since September 2021,” he indicated.
The expected increase in soybean production is explained by a 15% increase in the planted area and by average yield expectations greater than 2.4 ton/ha, 30% above what was recorded in the 2020/2017 harvest. The larger planted area and the improvement in the yield per hectare would allow a production of close to 3 million tons to be reached in 2022.
Uruguay XXI
The favorable climatic conditions registered in Uruguay were an exception in the Southern Cone, the main soybean exporting region in the world. The climatic phenomenon known as La Niña affected much of the soybean crops in southern Brazil and much of the agricultural land in Argentina and Paraguay.
In this stage, In February of this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut world soybean production for the second consecutive month to 364 million tons, a drop of 19 million compared to the December 2021 forecast. The fall will be even greater if the latest data presented by the National Supply Commission of Brazil is considered, which estimates that the production of its country will be 125 million tons, 10 million less than those considered by the USDA in its last report.
In uruguay, the combination of high sales prices and improved crop yields had not occurred since the agricultural boom of 2013/2014, and this is what explains the prospect of a strong rise in soybean exports in 2022.
A) Yes, With a production close to 3 million tons and an average value of between US$550-600/ton, Uruguay is expected to exceed US$1.6 billion in soybean exports in 2022, an increase of 80% compared to 2021, a year affected by the lack of rain. That figure would be very close to the record of US$ 1,875 that Uruguay had in the 2013 campaign.
Uruguay XXI
Also, according to Uruguay XXI, the associated costs of soybean cultivation measured in dollars had a considerable increase in the current 2021/2022 harvest. This is explained because A large part of the inputs for agricultural use (fertilizers, phytosanitary products, fuels) have had strong price increases in the last year. Despite this, theThe net result would be clearly positive for the average producer in the 2021/2022 agricultural campaign.
“In short, if there is no radical change in current international conditions, Uruguayan soybean exports will register maximum values in 2022, explained by both prices and exported tons,” the official report states.
China, Uruguay’s main trading partner, andIt is also the world’s largest importer of soybeans with about 60% of world purchases.
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