The President Dina Boluarte He said in Davos –where participates in the World Economic Forum meeting– That Peru has recovered “tranquility economic“, which is a country for investors to trust and assured that their government has not exceeded more indebtedness. However, the figures do not accompany these statements.
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In 2023, in the first year of management of the president, the Peruvian economy fell 0.55%, and in 2024 it would have grown around 3.2%. Although a recovery is observed, this is insufficient because to create quality employment, 5%need to advance.
Private investment, meanwhile, would have grown 4.1%, and for this year an advance of around 2.5%is expected.
In this regard, the former Minister of Economy and Finance, David Tuesta, He explained that the speeches of the head of state always “oversize” the results of the country. “What has happened to us is a recovery, but at all implies an exceptional situation,” he added.
Another indicator that questions the words of Dina Boluarte It is the poverty figure. In 2023, this problem affected 29% of the country’s population, which meant an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to 2022, that is, 596,000 people joined this condition.
By 2024, it is projected that poverty would have backed up only between 1 and 1.5 percentage points, which still does not recover prepandymia levels when this problem affected 20.2% of Peruvians.
David Tuesta considered that many years will pass to reach the prepaandemics figures because for this he pointed out that greater growth and commitments by the Executive are needed.
“We need proper measures, and an effort to reduce the bureaucracy that investments affect. Reduce bureaucratic barriers would add a more economic growth point,” he said.
To all this we must also add the informality Labor that still hits more than 70% of workers and that to date does not receive concrete measures from the Executive to change this situation.
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Public spending
In Davos, Dina Boluarte He also said that they have not exceeded public spending, although here the results also say otherwise. The fiscal deficit, according to the Fiscal Council (Cf) would have reached 3.6% of GDP, 0.8 points above what the rule establishes.
For former Minister of Economy and Finance and former president of the CF, Carlos Oliva This result demonstrates that the expense is above what has been accepted and that a series of public resources have been committed.
“The minister (José Arista) has said in some way that he is not interested in the fiscal rule, so he will surely continue to comply with and nothing will happen,” he added.
What does it imply not complying with the rule? For Oliva, the government loses credibility and that the stability of the country is affected. “This means that there will be more debt, therefore, more interest payment, less investment and more expensive indebtedness,” he said.
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