The expected rank for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the following year is greater than the last one planned by the Treasury for the closure of 2025, estimated between 0.5 and 1.5%, in April there was a perspective of between 1.5% and 2.3% in the 2026 economic precriterities.
“By 2025 and 2026, we will maintain the fiscal consolidation trajectory, aware that we face a complex international environment that demands balance between fiscal responsibility and promotion of economic activity. The gradual adjustment strategy we propose is designed to preserve economic dynamism, promote investment and strengthen employment, while ensuring the sustainability of public debt in the medium term,” said Édgar Amador Zamora when presenting the Economic package after 10:30 p.m., when the time previously established was 6:00 p.m.
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With its adjustment for the growth of the economy, it is expected that the deficit, which is the difference between the income and the public spending compensated with debt, closing in -4.1% of the GDP in 2026, a deficit less than the newly adjusted one established in -4.3%, but larger than that was approved in the 2025 economic package of -3.9% of the GDP.
Net public spending is expected in 10.11 billion pesos, 5.9% more than the one approved by 2025. Meanwhile, public revenues will reach 8,72 billion, which represents a real 4.6% growth compared to what is expected by 2025 at the end of last year.
According to the holder of the Treasury, Fiscal Package 2026 incorporates extra -fiscal provisions oriented to safeguard the physical and mental health of Mexican families, while establishing mechanisms aimed at expanding the tax base through digital tools that facilitate compliance, simplification of procedures, the modernization of customs, and the prevention, detection and sanction of tax evasion.
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“These measures seek to ensure that taxpayers make a fair and equitable contribution. Among the measures it is established that three quarters of the quotas paid to the IPAB will not be deductible by the multiple banking institutions,” he said.
Fiscal measures are also proposed in favor of public health, since it is planned to adjust the IEPS to sugary drinks and tobacco with a double objective: to encourage healthier habits and counteract the budgetary effects associated with the treatment of diseases linked to the consumption of these products, Amador Zamora said.
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Price rise
According to the agency, for the following year, inflation is expected to close 3.0% in 2026, an index less than expected for the closing of 2025 estimated at 3.8%.
The exchange rate is expected at 19.3 pesos per dollar average in 2026, when in the 2025 economic package it was estimated at 18.7 pesos per dollar, and now it was adjusted in 19.6 pesos per dollar.
For the reference interest rate a 6.0% level is expected in 2026, projection less than 7.3% adjusted for the closure of 2025.
