The uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine on inflation and the volatility of the financial system will make the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grow less in 2022, announced today (27) the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The body, linked to the United Nations, reduced the growth forecast for the region from 2.1% to 1.8% this year.
For Brazil, the estimated expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced) fell from 0.5% to 0.4% in 2022, below the average for the South American continent. The growth forecast for the South American economies increased slightly from 1.4% to 1.5%, thanks to improved forecasts in several neighboring countries.
The estimate for economic growth went from 2.2% to 3% in Argentina, from 3.7% to 4.8% in Colombia, from 3.1% to 3.9% in Uruguay and from 3% to 5% in Venezuela. On the other hand, it fell from 1.9% to 1.5% in Chile and from 3% to 2.5% in Peru.
The rest of Latin America is also facing economic slowdown. ECLAC revised its growth forecast for Central America and Mexico from 3.3% to 2.3%. For the Caribbean (except Guyana), the estimate dropped from 6.1% to 4.7%.
In a statement, ECLAC reported that the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean face a complex situation in 2022 due to the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For the agency, at the regional level, the lower expected growth will be accompanied by higher inflation and slow recovery of employment. ECLAC also expects that the slowdown in the economy of the United States, China and the European Union will affect Latin American exports, due to the decrease in external demand for products from the region, resulting from the military conflict.