A growing number of Republicans say former President Trump should not run again in 2024 or that he will lose if he does, anticipating divisions in the GOP that are likely to come to light after the midterm elections.
Republicans Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush and Mike Pence have indicated in recent days that they would prefer to see someone else on the ballot in the next presidential election.
Some of those figures — like Ryan, Bush and Rep. Liz Cheney — are no longer champions of the party, which has been taken over by Trump. But they are still being heard and their concerns about another Trump candidacy, combined with polls showing many voters ready to move on, illustrate how Trump’s viability as a candidate could determine how the 2024 primary field approaches.
“Some people like Trump and some people don’t,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “He is the most dominant individual figure in the match. It is a fact”.
Pence, a once-loyal Trump colleague who has broken with him since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill, was asked last week if he would vote for Trump if he is on the ballot in 2024. “Well, there could be someone else who I would prefer more,” he said.
Ryan, who retired from the House in 2019 after numerous public spats with Trump, argued earlier this month that the former president could cost Republicans the White House if he is on the ballot in two years.
“I think Trump’s ineligibility will be palpable by then,” he said. “We all know that he will lose. Or let me put it this way: We all know that he is far more likely to lose the White House than anyone else running for president from our side of the aisle. So why would we want to go through with it?”
Bush, who ran an unsuccessful primary campaign against Trump in 2016, told CNN last week that he believes there will be “a yearning for a new generation of leadership in our country in 2024 and candidates who are focused on the future, not necessarily past grievances.”
For his part, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has not said outright that Trump should not run again. But when asked this summer about the prospect of the former president seeking another term in 2024, he predicted “a packed field” of Republican candidates.
There are still plenty of Trump allies in Congress and elsewhere who would also welcome another Trump campaign with open arms. Sen. Lindsey Graham (RS.C.) said in September that he believes Trump has a “very good chance” of winning in 2024.
Since Trump left office, Graham has said on multiple occasions that the former president should consider running again. Representatives Elise Stefanik (RN.Y.) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.), two influential members of the House Republican Conference, told Politico over the summer that they would support Trump in 2024 if he ran.
Polls have shown most Republicans still support Trump and would endorse him as the party’s nominee, but there are signs some GOP voters are ready to move on.
But Trump remains wildly popular in the GOP, drawing thousands of supporters to rallies in recent weeks for battleground candidates.
The former president has not said whether he plans to run again in 2024, though he often hints he has made up his mind and frequently jokes in his speeches that he may have to “do it again.”
