A survey by the National Supply Company (Conab) estimates that grain production in Brazil will have a record growth of 8.3% in the 2024/25 season, reaching 322.47 million tons. If confirmed, the result represents an increase of 24.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle.
The projection is included in the 1st Survey of the 2024/25 Grain Harvest, released this Tuesday (15). In terms of area, the estimated growth is 1.9%, totaling 81.34 million hectares to be used in this harvest.
According to Conab, the area destined for rice production is 9.9% larger than that used in the previous cycle. This increase was noticed in all regions of the country, being more intense in the Central-West (33.5%) and the Southeast (16.9%).
“In Mato Grosso alone, producers will allocate more than 133 thousand hectares for grain cultivation, an increase of 39.3% when compared to the area recorded in the 2023/24 season. In Goiás, the increase reached 24%, a rate slightly lower than that recorded in Minas Gerais, where there was an increase of 25.1%”, informed Conab.
The main rice producing region in the country, the Southern Region will also expand its cultivation area, expected to reach 1.16 million hectares. “This scenario influences the expectation of greater production, with the harvest estimated at 12 million tons, recovering the volume obtained in the 2017/2018 harvest”, according to the company.
According to the president of Conab, Edegar Pretto, the forecast is that Brazil will return to the level of the largest rice harvests in its history. “This is the result of the work of producers in partnership with the federal government, which once again developed policies for the entire agricultural field, covering small, medium and large producers”, he explained.
Conab foresees an increase in the area sown for bean production. In this case, going from 2.86 million hectares in 2023/24 to 2.88 million hectares in the current cycle. “Cultivated throughout the year, the biggest increase is expected for the area sown in the legume’s first harvest, with an increase of 2.3%, being estimated at 881.3 thousand hectares, resulting in a production of 947.3 thousand tons” , reported Conab.
The total production of beans in the country, considering the three cultivation cycles, will reach 3.26 million tons, a result 0.5% higher than that recorded in the previous harvest.
Soy, corn and cotton
The forecast is also for an increase in the area allocated to soybean cultivation. Conab estimates that this increase, between the current and previous harvest, will reach 2.8%. This increase, however, is the third smallest percentage increase since the 2009/2010 cycle. This is due to the delay in the onset of rain this year, especially in the Central-West. Estimated production is 166.05 million tons.
The expectation regarding corn is an estimated recovery of 3.5% of the harvest. The total harvest should be around 119.74 million tons, with the area remaining at 21 million hectares.
“In the first cereal harvest, both production and cultivated area are expected to reduce by 1.1% and 5.4% respectively, reaching 3.76 million hectares sown, with production estimated at 22.72 million tons”, detailed Conab.
In the case of cotton, the forecast suggested in this first survey indicates growth of 2.9% in the area to be sown, reaching a total of 2 million hectares. Plume production is estimated at 3.67 million tons.
“The first expectation of production above 12 million tons for winter crops was not confirmed, mainly influenced by the weather conditions in the producing regions. Wheat, the main crop among winter crops, had its harvest forecast reduced to 8.26 million tons”, explained Conab.
According to the company, the result is due to climate problems, especially in Paraná, where droughts occurred, and the “lack of predominant cold weather”. Frost occurrences were observed in August, which affected production.
Exports
If the increase in production – and the consequent domestic supply – of rice is confirmed, the price of the product will tend to fall. However, according to Conab, even with this drop, the producer’s profitability should be maintained, as this increase should be accompanied by an increase in exports, reaching 2 million tons.
In the case of corn, Conab is paying attention to the product’s summer harvest in Latin America, to get an idea of the grain’s export potential in Brazil and Argentina, its main producers. Lower supply in South America could result in a recovery in prices on the foreign market.
Exports are projected at 34 million tons in the 2024/2025 cycle and demand in the domestic market for the grain is expected to remain strong, due to the good performance of the animal protein export market and ethanol production.
Soybean exports in this cycle are expected to reach 105.54 million tons, based on increased production and global demand, especially from China. Ending stocks are estimated at 4.16 million tons.
“In the case of wheat, the damage caused by adverse weather conditions in Paraná influences the appreciation of cereal prices in the domestic market. The adverse climate in other important producing regions in the world, as well as the geopolitical conflicts faced were also factors for the increase in prices verified”, informed Conab.
