The National Supply Company (Conab) already estimates a record production of 312.4 million tons, a volume that, if confirmed, would surpass by 41.5 million tons the record of 270.9 million tons obtained in the previous harvest, based on the 1st Grain Harvest Survey for the period 2022/2023.
According to the estimate presented this Thursday (6), there was a 2.9% growth in the area destined for planting, compared to the 2021/22 cycle. The survey estimates that grain production will be carried out in an area of 76.6 million hectares.
“It is worth mentioning that in Brazil, considering its vast territorial extension, there is the cultivation of three crops in different periods. Thus, approximately 52.6 million hectares are used for all crops”, explained the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.
soy and corn
The highlights will be soybeans and corn, which together should result in a production of 279.3 million tons. “In the case of soybeans, Brazilian farmers must allocate an area of 42.89 million hectares, a growth of 3.4% compared to the previous harvest”, informs Conab.
The agency recalls that the sowing of the grain, when carried out in the window of the main producing states, reaches 4.6% of the area. In Paraná, the state that presented the highest area index, this percentage is 9%. In Mato Grosso, 8.9%; and in Mato Grosso do Sul, 6%. With this advance in cultivated areas, the company’s estimate for soybean production is 152.4 million tons.
With regard to corn, Conab predicts, for the first crop, a reduction of 1.5% in the area to be cultivated. This is due to higher costs and the substitution of production for more profitable crops.
However, despite being produced in a reduced area, the expectation is for a 14.6% increase in grain production, due to the expectation of productivity recovery. As a result, the total to be harvested is estimated at 28.69 million tons in the first harvest; and a total of 126.9 million tons in the three harvests.
“In the three southern states, where sowing is already advanced, producers are alert to the possible incidence of spittlebug attacks, especially with the increase in temperatures in the coming months”, informed the superintendent of Agricultural Information at Conab, Candice Romero Santos .
Rice and beans
There is an expectation of a drop in the planted area also for the production of rice and beans. In the case of rice, 10.8 million tons are expected to be harvested; and in the case of beans, 2.96 million tons, which guarantees the supply in the country, says Conab.
“Beans are a short-cycle crop, which is an advantage for producers who are able to adapt their planting within a shorter window, without having to give up the production of other grains in the same crop year. In this scenario, Brazil has three different planting seasons, thus favoring a constant supply of the product throughout the year”, said the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.
Cotton and winter crops
The company expects cotton production to increase by 1.9% in terms of area, reaching a total of 1.63 million hectares in the 2022/23 harvest. The expected result is a harvest of 2.92 million tons of the plume.
Winter crops have crops in the harvest phase or advanced stage of development. “The main crop sowed, wheat is already harvested in 22.4% of the planted area in the country”, informs Conab, referring to the “expectation of a new record”, with a production of 9.4 million tons, volume 22% higher than the previous crop.
Marketplace
According to Conab, the first projections for the 2022/23 crop “point to an increase in final stocks of corn (20%), cotton (17%), beans (31%) and soybeans (45%)”, in comparison with the previous year. 2021/22.
“With regard to domestic consumption, the survey points to stability in the consumption of rice and beans, a slight increase in the demand for cotton (2%) and an increase in the consumption of corn and soybeans, of 6.2% and 5% respectively. ”, says Conab.
In the case of wheat, the trade balance estimates were adjusted, “reducing imports from 6.3 million tons to 6.1 million tons and increasing foreign sales from 200 thousand tons to 2.7 million tons”. If expectations are confirmed, at the end of the harvest (in August 2023), the country should have a carry-over stock of 1.19 million tons.
The estimate for soybean exports for next year is an increase of 22.5%, totaling 95.87 million tons, compared to 2022. An addition that, according to the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab , Allan Silveira, is motivated by a “greater Brazilian supply of grain in the 2022/23 harvest, combined with an increase in world demand and a forecast of reduced exports from the United States”.
As for soybean oil, the outlook is for exports to fall from 2.1 million tons in 2022 to 1.8 million tons in 2023, motivated by the expectation of increased production of biodiesel and resuming it more strongly in the market. oil exporter in 2023 by Argentina.
“A similar situation occurs with corn export estimates, with the projection of greater production and a heated external demand”, informs Conab, when estimating that 45 million tons of the product will leave the country via ports, “which represents an increase of 21.6% in cereal exports in 2023”.
