The federal government will not achieve the fiscal consolidation planned for 2025, due to an adjustment in the historical series of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with which the level of the deficit will be higher than projected, according to information from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
In 2024, the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (RFSP) – the debt that is contracted in its broadest measure – was located at a historical level of 5.7% of GDP, which is why different cuts were made to public spending last year in order to reduce this indicator.
In this way, the Ministry of Finance, headed by Édgar Amador Zamora, initially expected that the deficit would be reduced to 3.9% of GDP; However, for the General Economic Policy Criteria (CGPE) 2026, the projection was modified upwards to a range between 4.3 and 4.4% of GDP.
However, in recent months, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) updated the historical series of GDP for 2023 and 2024, so now the expected deficit for the end of last year will be 4.5% of GDP.
Among the challenges for public finances last year was achieving fiscal consolidation, amid cuts to public spending and budget revenues that grow to a lesser extent than the resources used.
The challenge will continue this year, although with fewer cuts. The RFSP is expected to be at a level of 4.1% in 2026.
“This adjustment will not only maintain a stable trajectory of the public debt, but also offer certainty to the population, the markets and the international community about the commitment of the Government of Mexico to the fiscal sustainability of the country,” said the Treasury in the CGPE 2026.
Debt of 52.4% of GDP
Regarding the Historical Balance of the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (SHRFP), the debt in its broadest measure, this will also be slightly affected by the update of the GDP series.
Previously, Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration expected expanded debt to be at a historic level of 52.3% of GDP at the end of last year; however, it is now expected to be 52.4 percent.
“The SHRFSP will stand at 52.3% of GDP, which confirms that, despite international volatility, public debt maintains a stable and sustainable trajectory, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent fiscal management,” stated the agency in the CGPE 2026.
Meanwhile, for this year the federal government expects the debt to continue at 52.3% of GDP, in what it considered a “stable and sustainable path in the medium term.”
For this year, the federal government expects the debt to continue at 52.3% of GDP, in what it considered a “stable and sustainable path in the medium term.
