THE economic team reduced the volume of resources frozen in the 2025 Budget from R$12.1 billion to R$7.7 billion.
The data is contained in the Primary Revenue and Expense Assessment Report for the 5th two months, released this Friday (21) by the Ministry of Planning and Budget. Of the total, R$4.4 billion are blocked and R$3.3 billion were contingency.
The drop in blocking is mainly due to the cancellation of R$3.8 billion in discretionary (non-mandatory) expenses to cover mandatory expenses.
Already the contingency went from zero to R$3.3 billion due to the worsening projection for this year’s fiscal result.
The details of the values by ministry will be presented in the Budgetary and Financial Programming Decree, scheduled for November 30th.
Blocking and contingency
THE blockade is adopted when expected expenses exceed the limit imposed by the fiscal framework. Already the contingency is applied when there is revenue frustration and risk of non-compliance with the fiscal target.
THE 2025 target is zero deficitwith tolerance for a negative result of up to R$31 billion.
According to the Ministry of Planning, the reduction in the blockade also reflects a drop of R$4 billion in the estimate of mandatory expenses, influenced by declines in social security benefits and subsidies.
The contingency became necessary because the projected primary deficit (R$34.3 billion) exceeded the limit allowed by the target (R$31 billion). The increase is mainly due to the deficit of state-owned companies and the downward revision of net revenue.
The primary deficit represents the difference between expenditure and revenue, disregarding interest on public debt.
When considering that, since September, the government had canceled R$3.8 billion in discretionary expenses to cover the growth in mandatory spending, the total volume of frozen resources (blocked and contingency) fell from R$8.3 billion to R$7.7 billion, a relief of R$644 million.
The report reduced contention in the Executive Branch by R$501 million, from R$5.514 billion to R$5.013 billion. The total portion of frozen parliamentary amendments increased from R$2.794 billion to R$2.645 billion, releasing R$149 million.
Income and expense projections
The report updated estimates for revenue and spending throughout 2025.
>> See the main numbers:
Primary revenues of the Union
- Previous projection: R$2.924 trillion
- Current projection: R$2.922 trillion
Total primary expenses
- Previous projection: R$2.417 trillion
- Current projection: R$2.418 trillion
Mandatory expenses
- Previous projection: R$2.207 trillion
- Current projection: R$2.204 trillion
Discretionary (non-mandatory) expenses
- Previous projection: R$219.056 billion
- Current projection: R$215.425 billion
Specific expense projections
- Social security benefits: from R$1.029 trillion to R$1.028 trillion (-R$263.7 million)
- Personnel and social charges: from R$408.976 billion to R$408.592 billion (-R$384 million)
- Court orders and judgments: from R$42.824 billion to R$43.356 billion (+R$532.4 million)
- Economic subsidies: from R$24.769 billion to R$21.677 billion (-R$3.092 billion)
Collection
- Dividends from state-owned companies: from R$48.808 billion to R$52.422 billion (+R$3.614 billion)
- Concessions: from R$7.743 billion to R$7.831 billion (+R$88.2 million)
- Royalties: from R$145.903 billion to R$144.081 billion (-R$1.822 billion)
Fiscal target and recent decisions
The 2025 fiscal target allows for a deficit of up to R$31 billion. According to the government, the lower projection of the result is linked to the deficit of state-owned companies and the drop of R$ 1 billion in estimated net revenue.
The government also highlights positive impacts of approval in Congress of measures linked to tax compensation undue payment, to Atestmed (digital medical certificate system from the National Social Security Institute) and defense insurance, which should generate tax relief of around R$15 billion this year.
Furthermore, the Federal Audit Court (TCU) authorized the government to contingency resources to pursue the target floor – primary deficit of R$31 billion – in 2025, which increases flexibility in budget execution. However, Minister Benjamin Zymler’s decision will still be judged by the body’s plenary session.
Details of the areas that will have partial release of blocked resources will be released by the end of November.
