Brazil is expected to end 2026 with a trade surplus of US$70 billion to US$90 billion in 2026. The estimates were released this Tuesday (6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic).
According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), the forecast indicates a result superior to that recorded in 2025, when the Brazilian trade balance closed with a positive balance of US$68.3 billion.
Despite the high surplus, last year’s result represented a drop of 7.9% compared to 2024, when the balance was US$74.2 billion.
For 2026, the Mdic estimates exports of between US$340 billion and US$380 billion. Imports are expected to range from US$270 billion to US$290 billion. As a result, the trade flow (sum of exports and imports) could reach between US$610 billion and US$670 billion.
Exceeding expectations
The 2025 surplus was above market expectations, which projected around US$65 billion, and is considered the third best result in the historical series, behind only the balances recorded in 2023 and 2024.
Official projections for the trade balance are updated quarterly. According to the Mdic, new, more detailed estimates on exports, imports and trade balance for 2026 will be released in April.
