The public accounts of the Central Government (National Treasury, Social Security and Central Bank) should close 2023 with a primary deficit of R$ 65.91 billion. The fiscal target is contained in the Budget Guidelines Law Project (PLDO) of 2023, sent tonight (14) to the National Congress.
The primary deficit represents the result of government accounts excluding interest payments on the public debt. With the deficit forecast for next year, this will be the tenth consecutive year of negative public accounts.
The LDO project predicts deficits until at least 2024, totaling 11 straight years of negative results. The text projects a deficit of BRL 27.89 billion in 2024 and a primary surplus of BRL 33.7 billion in 2025.
Despite yet another negative result for next year, the deficit is lower than the target of R$ 170.5 billion stipulated for this year. Because of the improvement in revenue in recent months, the Ministry of Economy estimates that this goal will be met with ease. At the end of March, the folder thad been reduced to R$ 66.906 billion the primary deficit projection for this year.
precatory
Traditionally, the LDO contains an annex of medium-term fiscal risks. The project sent this Friday to Congress estimates a risk of R$ 859 billion with unfavorable court decisions. Among these actions, there are debts linked to the former Fund for Maintenance and Development of Elementary Education (Fundef). In recent years, states have managed to win, in court, the right to receive the difference between the amounts received at Fundef and the amount owed by the Union.
Fundef’s debts were one of the main factors that led the government to obtain approval, last year, of constitutional amendments that made the payment of precatories (debts definitively recognized by the Courts) in installments and changed the calculation of the federal spending ceiling. The other factors used by the government for the approval of the proposed amendments to the Constitution were the impact of inflation on mandatory expenditures, such as Social Security, and the payment of the benefit of R$ 400 from Auxílio Brasil, which will be in force until the end of this year.
The PLDO contains parameters that guide the preparation of the Budget for the following year. In theory, the project needs to be approved by the National Congress by the end of the legislative semester, in mid-July. Otherwise, the Congressional agenda will be locked.
