The increase in spending on fertilizers and fuel made the Ministry of Economy revise downward the projection of trade surplus (exports minus imports) this year. The estimate fell from US$ 81.5 billion, forecast in April, to US$ 55.4 billion, a reduction of 32.7%. Every 3 months, the government releases a new forecast.
Despite the drop, it may be the second best annual result of the trade balance since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. The best trade surplus recorded to date was last year, when the country exported US$ 61.407 billion more than it imported, benefited from the appreciation of commodities (primary goods with international quotation).
According to the Undersecretary of Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics of the Ministry of Economy, Herlon Brandão, there are two main factors for the revision of the estimate: the drop in the international price of iron ore in recent months and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, which made fertilizers and fuels.
“What we have observed in the year is the growth of imports much higher than expected. Exports are more or less in line with what was initially projected”, explained Brandão. “The prices of fuel, fertilizers and fertilizers, mainly, influence this movement”, he added.
The drop in the projected balance is due to both an increase in imports and a deceleration in exports. The projection for purchases from abroad rose from US$ 268 billion forecast in July to US$ 274.9 billion now. On the export side, the forecast dropped from US$ 349.4 billion to US$ 330.3 billion. If confirmed, the annual values will be records for these parameters.
impact of war
The war between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the trade balance in recent months. Due to the increase in spending on items that made the conflict more expensive, the surplus last month totaled US$ 3.993 billion, down 9.3% compared to September 2021.
International prices of fertilizers and fertilizers rose 47.4% in September, compared to the same month last year. The average price of fuel purchased from abroad increased by 53.3% in the same comparison. In wheat, another product that Brazil imports in large quantities, the high reaches 58.2%.
