Approved this Friday (19) by Congress, the 2026 General Union Budget will have extra measures, not included in the approved text, to reinforce the cash flow and keep compliance with the fiscal surplus target viable of R$34.3 billion next year.
Among the letters from the economic team are the approval of the persistent debtor’s project, the collection of Tax on Financial Operations (IOF) on cryptoactives and special renegotiations with debtors from the Union.
The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, announced the measures with the potential to raise extra revenue on Thursday (18), at an end-of-year coffee with journalists. He also mentioned the expectation of decisions from the Federal Supreme Court (STF) favorable to the government and the increase in Import Tax for some products.
According to Haddad, the economic team works with a “map of possibilities” to restore revenueafter the Congress approve a fiscal package with a smaller scope than initially projected by the government.
The economic team expected to raise around R$30 billion with the linear cut in tax benefits, in addition to the increase in taxes on Interest on Equity (JCP), betting houses (bets) and fintechs. However, calculations by Congressional leaders indicate that the final version should generate something around R$22.4 billion in 2026.
“The budget has challenges, but it is credible. There is nothing incoherent in the 2026 piece”, stated the minister, when defending the Treasury’s strategy to meet the fiscal target established in the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), which foresees a surplus of 0.25% of GDP, equivalent to around R$34.3 billion.
Under the new fiscal framework, the government meets the target if it reaches zero deficit due to the tolerance margin of 0.25 percentage points.
Contumacious debtor and income frustration
Haddad informed that there are still no consolidated estimates on the impact of the bill that combats persistent debtors, companies that use tax default as a business strategy. According to him, the potential revenue can help offset the revenue frustration resulting from the dehydration of the package approved by Congress.
On Wednesday (17), the Senate completed approval of the project that reduces part of the tax benefits granted to companies by 10%. The text also increases taxes on bets, fintechs and JCP, measures that had previously been rejected, but ended up being incorporated to reinforce revenue. The project awaits sanction from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
At the beginning of the week, Haddad had said that needed R$20 billion to balance the 2026 Budget. However, when considering all the measures that depended on Congressional approval included in the original Budget project, the extra revenues were forecast at R$28 billion.
Other alternatives
In addition to the persistent debtor, Haddad cited the possibility of regulating taxation on transactions with cryptoactives, which depends on the definition of rules by the Central Bank, and the increase in Import Tax on certain products. He also mentioned the possibility of changes to IOF rates and the carrying out of large tax transactions, a mechanism that allows agreements between the Union and taxpayers to settle debts.
According to the minister, STF decisions close to a definitive conclusion could also generate “reasonable” revenue in 2026. Haddad, however, did not detail which processes are on the economic team’s radar.
Budget defense and criticism of the past
Haddad rejected criticism that the government had been naive in including measures not yet approved by Congress in the Budget.
“When you have to make a fiscal effort, it is impossible to send the budget without the necessary measures to support it,” he said.
He stated that the Finance Minister’s scope for decisions is small and denied sending proposals that he considers politically unfeasible.
At the end-of-year coffee with journalists, the minister once again stated that public accounts have been disorganized since 2015 and said he had inherited a deficit of around R$180 billion. He also criticized the old spending ceiling, created during the Michel Temer government, stating that the rule lost credibility and that the current government received high interest rates.
When commenting on the situation at the Central Bank, Haddad stated that the current president of the institution, Gabriel Galípolo, appointed by Lula, “inherited serious problems”.
