The oil prices would decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said Monday, citing a surge in production that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day.
The bank predicted that the Brent crude oil will average $56 a barrel and WTI $52 in 2026, below the current curves of $63 and $60.
“The 2025-2026 supply wave “This is mainly due to long-cycle projects that came to light just before the pandemic, were delayed during Covid and are now coming online, as well as OPEC’s strategic decision to withdraw production cuts,” the bank said.
The OPEC+, That is, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies has been increasing pumping since April. Other producers, such as the United States and Brazil, are also increasing supply, aggravating fears of saturation and weighing down prices.
According to the International Energy Agencythe global oil market faces an even larger surplus next year, of up to 4.09 million bpd.
Goldman Sachs expects stocks to rebound from 2027 onwards as low prices in 2025-2026 weigh on non-OPEC production and very few new projects come online after 15 years of low investment.
“Therefore, we expect Brent/WTI to rise to our long-term forecasts of $80/$76 by the end of 2028,” the bank said.
In 2026/2027, crude oil Brent could fall to $40 if supply from non-OPEC countries proves more resilient than expected or if the global economy enters a recession but could rise above 70 dollars barrel if Russian supply declines more sharply, according to Goldman Sachs.
The Brent crude oil futures were trading around $64.31 on Monday, while US crude West Texas Intermediate It was trading at $60.02.
