In the middle of the afternoon on Wednesday (28), the price of gold on the international market continued to rise, reaching record values. A troy ounce, the standard unit of measurement for precious metals, equivalent to 31.1035 grams, was traded at around US$5,280, approximately R$27,500. Around 3 pm, it reached US$5,326, until then the highest price ever reached for spot gold. 
The record is yet another facet of the rise in the price of the metal, which has skyrocketed, especially in the last 12 months, when it appreciated by more than 90%.
This week, for the first time, the price surpassed the US$5,000 mark. In 2026 alone, the appreciation will be around 22%.
One of the main rules of economics is the law of supply and demand. Directly, it means that the more economic agents look for a product – or asset, as in the case of gold – the higher the negotiated price. In other words, the price behavior indicates that interest in the metal is on the rise.
Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are the main trigger for global uncertainty – Photo: Reuters/Carlos Barria/Archive/reproduction prohibited
A similar behavior is seen in the price of silver. In one year, the troy ounce went from US$30 to a record US$115. On Tuesday afternoon (27), it was trading close to US$112.
THE Brazil Agency spoke with experts to understand the reasons that led to the rise in the trading price of metals on the international market.
Not coincidentally, the rise in gold becomes evident from January 2025, the month in which Donald Trump took office as president of the United States. At the time, a troy ounce of gold sold for US$2,700. Since then, the price has almost doubled.
Trump Effect
Economist Rodolpho Sartori, from the credit risk rating agency Austin Rating, explains that the rise in metals is a reflection of a current situation “filled with uncertainty”.
He recalls that gold, most notably, and silver, have historically been considered reserves of value. Store of value is an asset or commodity that preserves purchasing power over time.
In his view, the main trigger for global uncertainty is President Donald Trump’s economic policy.
“With tariffs and almost mercantilist protectionism, this is in itself a break with the free trade that the US has always defended,” he told Agência Brasil.
Sartori adds “external brutality” as an element that generates uncertainty.
“Threats to countries, even to commercial partners, increase distrust in Trump”, he assesses.
Since resuming the Presidency, Trump has followed an agenda that, under the claim of protecting American interests, imposes tariffs on trading partners, which became known as tariffs.
Gecilda Esteves, an economics professor at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec-RJ), adds that Trump’s greed for Greenland is a factor in the geopolitical turmoil.
The US president has been pressuring and threatening Denmark and other European countries to obtain control of the icy island in the Arctic.
“This has, in fact, shaken trust between the United States and Europe, generating fear of new trade wars under President Trump,” he said.
She adds that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which is entering its sixth year, also worsens the turmoil scenario.
“The market begins to understand that there is a real and immediate geopolitical risk, and gold and silver, obviously, rise”, he maintains.
Conflict between Ukraine and Russia worsens the turmoil scenario – Photo: Ukrainian Emergency Service/Disclosure via Reuters
Search for stability
Against this backdrop, gold and silver are experiencing a rush from investors and governments for the safety of their assets. Rodolpho Sartori points out that they try to “protect themselves in metals”.
“Metals can even be seen as an investment, but the type of investment that seeks to bring less volatility [forte oscilação] to the wallet. In this scenario, it really is protection,” he says.
Despite appearing as buyers of gold alongside large professional investors, central banks are not identified as those responsible for the soaring price of gold, in the economist’s opinion.
“Central banks, including the Brazilian one, have increased their gold reserves. However, I don’t consider that this is what is making gold ‘explode”, he assesses.
For him, the movement is derived from the investor market, which has been looking for metals to diversify investments and escape the risks of the current situation.
Gold experiences a rush from investors and governments for the safety of their assets – Photo: ReutersAngelika Warmuth/No reproduction
“Evidently the change in stance of central banks around the globe is extremely relevant in terms of political economy, but it would not inflate the price of gold alone. The demand for gold also increased from investors”, he points out.
Professor Gecilda Esteves, from Ibmec-RJ, assesses that governments, represented by central banks, have increased their appetite for metals “to diversify their reserves with the aim of reducing dependence on fiat currencies [sem lastro, ou seja, garantidas pela confiança]”.
“These are assets that have intrinsic value. It is not a fiat currency, it does not depend on any government to guarantee its viability and economic power”, he explains.
“It’s a safe haven, an insurance policy against any collapse of the financial or inflationary system,” he says.
Brazilian reserve
Here in Brazil, the Central Bank (BC) increased the amount of gold in international reserves, a kind of safety cushion against crises and external shocks.
In January 2025, the BC had 129.7 tons of gold in reserves, an amount that jumped to 172.4 tons in December, second most recent data. The growth was 33%.
In financial terms, the country had US$11.7 billion in gold in January 2025, a value that rose to US$23.9 billion in December, that is, more than doubled. The values do not take into account inflation during the period, estimated at around 4.5%.
The appreciation reflects both the increase in the number of tons and the appreciation in the price of gold on the international market.
Thus, gold, which accounted for 3.6% of reserves in January 2025, now represents 6.7% of the more than US$358 billion that the country had in December.
Central Bank increased Brazilian gold reserves – Photo: Antonio Cruz/Agência Brasil
Profitability
The Ibmec-RJ professor points out that the upward pressure on gold brings an element beyond the security of assets for investors.
“When gold breaks the historic barrier of US$5,000, it stops being just a protection and becomes a component of profitability [lucro] extremely aggressive in the portfolio, in a scenario of global uncertainty”, he explains.
Reflection in the dollar
At the same time that geopolitical turbulence increases the demand for gold, the American currency, the dollar, is experiencing distrust, as the professor explains.
“The price of gold ends up working as a thermometer of the health of the dollar. When gold rises, it is indicating that there is distrust in the American currency”, he says.
To illustrate the dollar’s loss of strength, economist Sartori details that when Trump took office in January 2025, the DXY, an indicator that measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of foreign currencies (real is not included), was close to 110 points. Currently it is around 96 points.
“It seems clear that there is some distrust in relation to the dollar. I think it’s too early to point out a de-dollarization or a loss of the currency’s hegemony, but in fact, there is distrust”, he assesses.
Here in Brazil, the devaluation was felt in the foreign exchange market. In the last 12 months, the dollar has fallen 11%. In 2026 alone, the devaluation is around 5.5%.
On Tuesday, the currency closed trading at R$5.20, lowest level in 20 months.
Dollar is experiencing distrust in world economies – Photo: Valter Campanato/Agência Brasil/File
More factors
In addition to the cyclical factors that led to the rise in gold, economist Rodolpho Sartori indicates a structural factor. Citing a study by economist Robin Brooks, from the Brookings Institution in Washington, Sartori understands that many countries have very high debts, which may be influencing economic agents’ perception of the sustainability of public debt.
“As a result, there has been some diversification in investment destinations beyond currencies. Many precious metals have appreciated recently”, he explains.
Professor Gecilda Esteves also adds that there is a search for protection against a possible correction (fall) in the capital market, such as stock exchanges, with “the possible artificial intelligence bubble [IA]which already started to cause stress at the beginning of this year.” There is fear that AI companies are overvalued, on the verge of suffering an abrupt drop in share prices.
Also check out the information from Repórter Brasil Tarde, from TV Brasil
