According to the report of Global Risks of 2022, of the insurance company Zurich, the main problems of the year that is ending are centered on the climate crisis, the growing social division, the increase in cyber risks and the political crises in many countries.
The report also reveals that only 1 in 6 experts are optimistic about the world outlook.
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The busy 2022 ends and these are the events related to risks with which it says goodbye:
– Weather concerns that remained at the climate summit in Egypt, where, according to Zurich, there were more problems than commitments.
– The triumph of the Republican Party in the legislative elections of November 8 in the United States. While the victory was not landslide, it reaffirms the chances of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
– The withdrawal of Russian troops that occupied the Kherson area, in the Ukraine, which once again changed the dynamics of the war in the middle of the European winter.
(See: Global services trade ‘cooling off,’ WTO warns).
– The planet is multipolar and therefore it is a mistake to divide it into two segments, one close to the United States and the other to China. The presence of several centers of power means that the powers have much less influence than before, while the number of conflicts increases. This influences globalization and the development of value chains.
– The market for primary goods such as oil or wheat cBeginning to be affected by regional circumstances. There may be shortages of certain commodities on one continent and abundance on others, as has happened with coal, to highlight a recent case.
“Many of these risks seem obvious, but in reality they are not, while there are others that are hidden and these must be paid much more attention, as they are opportunities for countries like Colombia”, said Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist of the Clocktower Group and who recently participated in the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR), in Cartagena.
(See: The most turbulent moments in the world economy in 2022).
Zurich also acknowledges that while there are various risks, they are not all negative:
– The markets they have calmed down.
– The supposed debacle due to the lack of gas in Europe never happened, as reflected by declining fuel prices.
(See: Will the fear of risk, in 2023, end with cryptocurrencies?).
– Commodity quotes they fell sharply in recent months and that prediction that deindustrialization is coming in Europe has no true basis.
Thus, for 2023, the insurance company recommends paying attention to:
– Policies regarding climate changematiceither, “because they must be seen from the need to develop clean energy, giving a solution to the problem is the gap between supply and demand“.
– The relative weakening of the United States, that appears as a less imposing power and that resorts to specific aggressive actions to maintain its power.
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– The ‘balkanization’ in Russia, “because it increases the probability that Vladimir Putin will be removed from office and a vacuum is created in which multiple ethnic and religious tensions would emerge. Given the weight of that nation as a supplier of basic products, together with its nuclear arsenal, such instability would be inconvenient “.
Zurich, like the expert Marko Papic, insists that the social and political scenarios that are predicted would be beneficial for Colombia and Latin America, “this taking into account that the region has immense deposits, as well as abundant land and water to meet the demand for food“.