The US dollar has begun to show signs of weakness after reaching its largest daily increase in more than two years. Despite a recent election victory in the United States and the anticipation of key decisions by several central banks, the currency fell 0.3%, suggesting the possibility of a more stable trend in the short term. This move comes amid speculation about future changes in monetary policy.
The dollar index, which represents the value of the greenback against a basket of six international currencies, fell to 104.84 units, after reaching its highest level since July 3 on Wednesday. On the same day, the currency had appreciated 1.5%, which represented its largest daily increase since September 2022. This rally had been driven mainly by investor interest in US assets, motivated by the proposed economic policies. by former President Donald Trump.
Monetary policy expectations and their impact
While analysts consider Trump’s election victory as a primary factor, some believe this situation is unlikely to prompt immediate changes at the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to announce today a reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points, which would cause investors to focus their attention on who will be the next appointments in the former president’s cabinet. It remains to be seen whether the Republican Party will maintain control in both chambers of Congress, which could influence the implementation of its fiscal agenda.
“If there is, then probably, in the market collectively, we will conclude that he will get more of his fiscal agenda passed. And that could support the dollar,” said Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank. Analyst projections suggest that expected changes in the country’s fiscal policy could strengthen the currency over the next few years, reaching a stable situation until 2025.
In an immediate scenario, market operators are eager to understand the projections that the Fed will deliver for December and beyond, especially after knowing the October employment report that was below expectations. The situation has been further complicated by factors such as hurricanes and labor strikes, which have affected the labor market.
Market reactions and Uruguayan context
In the Uruguayan context, the dollar showed an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous day, closing at 41.763 pesos in the interbank price. This increase reflects a recovery from the drop suffered previously, approaching the range of 42 pesos. At a monthly level, the dollar accumulates an appreciation of 0.27% in November and 7.02% annually, which indicates a continuous appreciation compared to the end of the previous year.
Analysts point out that the interconnection of international markets, particularly those influenced by US monetary policy, plays a fundamental role in the behavior of the dollar in Uruguay. However, the operators’ focus also lies on local and regional developments, as well as international dynamics.
Quote information from the Central Bank (BCU) reflects a diversified panorama, with the dollar showing buy and sell subtitles, as well as relevant arbitrages. Preferential quotes for eBROU users continue to set trends, with figures that adjust to the global behavior of currencies.
Future analysis: uncertainties and projections
Expectations about the future of monetary policy in the United States and its reflection in the global economy continue to be a central topic of analysis. Specialists suggest paying attention not only to macroeconomic indicators, but also to the political decisions that emerge after the recent elections. Attention is therefore broadening to the potential impact that a Republican administration could have on economic stability over longer time frames.
BROU quotes for this November 7, 2024
Benefit from eBROU’s preferential quotes
- Dollar:
- Purchase: 40.55000
- Sale: 42.95000
- Arbitrage Buy: 1.00000
- Arbitration Sale: 1.00000
- eBROU dollar:
- Purchase: 41.05000
- Sale: 42.45000
- Arbitrage Buy: 1.00000
- Arbitration Sale: 1.00000
- Euro:
- Purchase: 42.51000
- Sale: 47.45000
- Arbitrage Buy: 1.04830
- Arbitrage Sale: 1.10480
- Argentine Peso:
- Purchase: 0.02400
- Sale: 0.20000
- Arbitrage Purchase: 1,789.58330
- Arbitration Sale: 202.75000
- Real:
- Purchase: 6.90000
- Sale: 8.60000
- Buy Arbitrage: 6.22460
- Arbitration Sale: 4.71510
- Pound sterling:
- Purchase: 51.06000
- Sale: 57.52000
- Arbitrage Buy: 1.25930
- Arbitrage Sale: 1.33910
- Swiss Franc:
- Purchase: 45.48000
- Sale: 49.92000
- Buy Arbitrage: 0.89170
- Arbitrage Sale: 0.86030
- Guarani:
- Buy: 0.00508
- Sale: 0.00561
- Purchase Arbitration: 7,981.43000
- Arbitration Sale: 7,660.64000
- Indexed Unit:
- Buys: –
- Sale: 6.13150
- Arbitration Purchase: –
- Sale Arbitration: –
- Troy Ounce of Gold:
- Purchase: 107,566.17400
- Sale: 118,096.60850
- Arbitrage Purchase: 2,652.68000
- Arbitration Sale: 2,749.63000
