The agro-climatic situation caused by the drought has worsened in recent days, with the consequent cuts in production estimates and losses of US$ 2,930 million for the current campaign.
Hope is placed on the possibility that this may begin to reverse in the short term, if the forecasts that show the possibility of abundant rains in the main producing areas.
In the core region, the tables show a rapid deterioration due to the lack of water in the soil: in the last week the regular to bad tables doubled in corn and tripled in soybeans, reported the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
According to the entity, drought affects 73% of the region and exceeds the scenario outlined 15 days ago; and it could only be overcome with rains of between 100 and 140 millimeters (mm).
“It’s been almost 30 days without significant millimeters of water to help: the corn continues to suffer two heat strokes that have followed one another with barely a week of respite in between”
starting this sunday precipitation could be heavy to very heavy, with very important developments, in specific sectors.
“The rainfall regime of the current campaign has great probabilities of behaving like in the 2017/18 campaign; just like this one, conditioned by two consecutive Niña events”, José Luis Aiello, a specialist in Atmospheric Sciences, told Télam.
However, he clarified, “La Niña 2021/22 may have left its maximum cooling behind and, therefore, the core area could recover precipitation within the average sooner than in the 2017/18 campaign.”
☁ Does the weather check the productive record of the new campaign?
The sustained climatic uncertainty sows doubts in the development of coarse grains.
?https://t.co/QlOnuCxwcS pic.twitter.com/ba4DvJZPHT
– BCR Press (@BCRprensa) January 14, 2022
Until now, the drought and the temperature records, which increased the loss of moisture in the soil due to evapotranspiration, They cut corn production estimates by eight million tons and would limit soybean production to 40 million.
Of the 56 million tons of corn that were projected with a normal scenario a month ago, the almost 30 days without significant rains, extreme temperatures and radiation, low humidity and continuous winds adjusted the first corn estimate from 56 to 48 million tons; and the productive possibilities of soybean from 45 to 40 million.
“Almost 30 days have gone by without significant millimeters of water to help: corn continues to suffer two heat strokes that have followed one another with barely a week of respite in between,” says the latest report from the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA ) of the BCR.
As a result of the lack of rain and low humidity, despite the fact that “this year more was planted, there will be less corn because the yield falls 10 quintals compared to 2021.”
In the case of soybeans, the GEA report indicates that “the conditions of desiccation and thermo-hydric stress have been so serious in the last 30 days that the possibility of a normal scenario is also ruled out and you yield averages.”
This cut in corn and soybean harvests would cause a “loss of net income” for the producing sector of around US$2.93 billion, despite the recovery in the prices of both crops, the stock market entity estimated.
? To date, the 2021/22 drought will cost agricultural producers US$ 2,930 million
In total, the impact on the Argentine economy is estimated at US$4.8 billion, or 1% of its potential GDP.
? Find the full report at: https://t.co/Dj4FEtpBS6
– BCR Press (@BCRprensa) January 13, 2022
“In total, the impact on the Argentine economy is estimated at US$4.8 billion, or 1% of its potential GDP,” added the entity, which stated that “exports of the main products of the soybean and corn complexes will fall by 13 million tons.
“If we value the net exports of the sector at current prices, it is estimated that US$ 2,665 million will stop entering the country, a 10% drop compared to the total estimated at the end of last year,” he adds.
Finally, the report indicates that “The State will stop collecting taxes for US$ 1,440 million, of which US$ 1,040 million corresponds to lower tax income from export duties and the rest to other taxes”.
On the other hand, the dry weather allowed the completion of the barley and wheat harvest, in the latter case with a new record of 21.8 million tons, indicated the Cereal Exchange in its Weekly Agricultural Outlook.
“Despite having gone through the cycle under La Niña, a favorable distribution of rainfall, investment in technology by producers and the dry climate that prevented the development of diseases and speeded up the harvest allowed one out of every three hectares planted to exceed its maximum historical yields,” the study highlighted.
In this way, the campaign ends with a record yield of 34.4 quintals per hectare, just above the historical mark of 34.3 qq/Ha of the 2010/11 campaign.
? Through the Strategic Guide for Agriculture, @BCRmercados warns that in the core region, in seven days, the regular cadres doubled to bad in #corn and in #soy they tripled.
I know more about it! ?https://t.co/86NfBBlN51
— Agrofy News (@AgrofyNews) January 14, 2022
The barley harvest was also concluded with a yield of 45.45 qq/Ha and an accumulated production of five million tons, which represents a year-on-year increase of 22% compared to the 4.1 million of the 2020/21 campaign.
In the case of corn and soybeans, the possibility of sustaining production will depend on the rains and the development achieved by late plantings.
The expectations for the rains predicted for the next few days will be subject to the number of millimeters, since due to the degree of drying achieved, few lots still have possibilities.
“If there is a significant rainfall change during the next two months, it would be possible to achieve better productivities and reverse the gloomy outlook that today surrounds the 2021/22 cycle,” the BCR confided.
