The fiscal stimulus that was applied to gasoline exceeded, by 44,607 million pesos, the projection that the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) had for last year.
This difference is more than the budget approved for the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources in 2022, of 40,304 million pesos.
According to preliminary data released by the Tax Administration Service (SAT), last year the federal government stopped capturing 373,000 million pesos for the fiscal stimulus to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on gasoline.
“By the end of 2022, the total cost of fuel stimuli reached 373,000 million pesos, with which the increase in fuel prices was avoided as an adjustment mechanism to reduce inflation,” justified the prosecutor.
The amount that was not collected turned out to be higher than the estimate that the Ministry of Finance made in the middle of the year, in its Collection Waiver document, where it forecast a loss of 328.393 million pesos.
The revenue loss reported by the SAT is greater than the approved budget for 2022 of any agency, including the Ministry of Economy, whose approved spending for last year was the highest with 357,361 million pesos among the administrative units.
Last year, with the normalization of economic activity and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil began to rise, reaching maximums not seen in years.
In Mexico, given its direct price impact on consumers, the government not only waived 100% of the IEPS collection for gasoline, but also applied a complementary fiscal stimulus to contain prices.
Great cost to the treasury
Containing gasoline prices had a great cost to the public treasury, which was criticized by analysts given the growing spending needs that exist.
The collection will hardly fall compared to what was programmed thanks to the Income Tax (ISR) and the oil surpluses, we may be ‘tables’ or even a little above what was programmed,” said Héctor Villarreal, professor at Tec de Monterrey .
However, Villareal considered that these subsidies were highly regressive, which is why they are not very convincing given the needs that exist in spending on health, education, security, and infrastructure. “It’s a lot of money lost.”
In addition to the revenue loss due to these stimuli, analysts also questioned the transparency and viability of this strategy, since there is no impact study.
“The Federal Government could incorporate the opportunity cost of uncollected resources in its analysis of the fiscal stimulus policy, as well as its environmental and public health costs. Only then will it be possible to assess the cost in social well-being that these stimuli represent for Mexican society,” the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) previously noted.
complementary stimulus
In addition to the IEPS stimulus for gasoline, a complementary fiscal stimulus was implemented to smooth prices, which could cause the revenue loss to exceed 400,000 million pesos.
Héctor Villarreal pointed out that the complementary stimulus could easily represent a revenue loss of 50,000 million pesos.
With this, the loss to the public treasury would be around 423,000 million pesos.
Although the government previously stated that the oil surplus would cover the revenue loss, it also had to use the good income obtained through the ISR.
Preliminary data from the SAT indicated that tax collection fell 0.9% year-on-year at the end of the year, which was mainly explained by the stimuli.
In total, 3 trillion 812.519 million pesos would have been captured during 2022 through the payment of taxes from taxpayers, which was below that approved for that year by the Federal Income Law of 3 trillion 944.520 million pesos. pesos.
It will be until next January 30 when the Ministry of Finance grants the final data, where the amount of budgetary income and its behavior will also be known.
