Gustavo Volmar

From fossil fuels to renewables

For a while, the use of natural gas To generate Energy it was presented and promoted as an ideal solution. Announcements of new units using that gas, or about the conversion to gas of existing oil-fired plants, were front-page news in the newspapers, a reason for jubilation and celebrations for being steps forward in the direction of a long-awaited liberation from oil tyranny. Little was mentioned that the natural gas was also a gas non-renewable, which we had to import because we did not have it in our territory. All attention was focused on its alleged advantages, environmental and otherwise.

As a consolation, it must be added that this complacency was not exclusively ours. The same thing happened in Europe and other Latin American countries, to the point that ensuring the gas supply became a primary objective within energy strategies.

The awakening from that dream has been abrupt. Shortages and price increases represent a serious challenge for countries that depend on imported gas, which is reflected in the notable global appreciation of the US dollar. It is not just a serious vulnerability of power generation systems Energybut the dangers of dependence extend to the availability of raw materials and intermediate products from industries that use gas to operate.

The effect that this precariousness will have on the development of renewable energy sources is currently being debated. Energy. The most general opinion is that in the very short term the effect will be small, since due to the time required to start up new facilities, said effect will be limited to the increase in the use of existing capacity. In the medium and long term, however, a significant effect is anticipated, judging by the modifications that are being implemented in the investment plans of generators and industrial companies.

PhD in Economics from Columbia University specialized in companies, markets, forecasts and risk.

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