After the political and operational fall of Maduro, a figure emerges that many underestimated for years: Delcy Rodriguez. Intelligent, tough, educated and with a remarkable instinct for political survival, Delcy does not govern from the revolutionary epic but from the urgency. His presidency is not the result of an exemplary democratic transition, but of an implosion of Chavista power and unprecedented international pressure.
And here appears the actor who really orders the scene: donald trump.
Trump, Delcy and a relationship that no one imagined, but everyone understands
The relationship between Trump and Delcy Rodríguez is, to put it mildly, unnatural. For years she was sanctioned, banned and exhibited as part of the hard core of Chavismo. Today, however, she has become the necessary interlocutor. Not because there is ideological affinity, but because oil rules.
Trump is not interested in “democratizing” Venezuela out of moral conviction. Are you interested in control energy flowsstabilize prices, reduce uncomfortable dependencies and, incidentally, send an internal message of strength. Delcy knows it. And you can’t play with that.
Venezuela needs economic oxygen; The United States needs reliable, controlled oil. The result is a rough, guarded, but functional relationship. Nobody hugs each other. Nobody trusts. But everyone negotiates.
This is where Mexico fully enters history, suffering a silent blow.
When the United States decides to place million barrels of Venezuelan oil in the market—under controlled and politically designed schemes—not only moves Caracas and Washington. Move to the Gulf of Mexicomoves refineries, contracts, margins and strategies.
For Pemexthis is not an international note: it is a direct business variable.
More heavy oil on the market means:
– Greater pressure on prices.
– Direct competition in certain refining niches.
– Adjustments in profit margins.
– Reconfiguration of flows in the region.
Pemex already operates with an enormous financial burden, with refineries that are still seeking stability and with a model that depends much more on politics than on the market. If the United States refines Venezuelan oil and then redistributes it, Mexico may end up buying derivatives at more competitive prices, but also losing a lot of strategic space.
It is a dangerous paradox: cheaper gasoline in the short term, but less energy autonomy in the medium term.
Claudia Sheinbaum: the intermediary
In this scenario, a key figure for Mexico appears: the president Claudia Sheinbaum.
Sheinbaum did not inherit an easy relationship – not at all – with Trump. Nobody could have achieved it. But it also did not come with the confrontational speech that many feared. Its role has been—until now— that of rational intermediarynon-ideological, between Washington and Latin America.
Mexico cannot afford to break with the United States over this issue, but neither can it assume a submissive role in the face of decisions that impact its economy. Sheinbaum knows this and that is why he has opted for a silent, technical diplomacy, focused on stability.
His dialogue with Trump does not seek media prominence; seeks avoid shocks. That Venezuelan oil does not become a factor of regional destabilization. That Pemex is not trapped between other people’s decisions. May Mexico continue to be a reliable actor and not a passive spectator.
None of this happens in a vacuum. Trump does not act alone as president; acts as permanent candidate. The US Congressional elections are being held in November and your room for maneuver depends on arriving stronger.
For Trump, Venezuela as a political discourse fulfills several functions:
1. Demonstrates international control.
2. It reinforces your narrative of “order” and “leadership.”
3. Allows you to talk about energy, prices and security.
4. Gives you tangible results to sell to the electorate.
