Citibanamex, with a credit portfolio of 601,351 million pesos, was the bank that saw the greatest deceleration compared to the third quarter of last year, growing 1.8%, while last year it recorded growth at a rate of 8.9%.
Santander, the bank of Spanish origin, had a portfolio growth of 3.2% in 2024, while last year it grew at a rate of 5.6%; and Scotiabank was the bank that remained relatively stable in its growth rate with a rate of 5.7%.
On the opposite side, Inbursa, HSBC and BBVA México were the only banks that reported double-digit growth. The growth of Inbursa, owned by Carlos Slim, is also due to the purchase he made last year of Sofom Cetelem and which was completed in the first months of 2024.
Analysts consulted by Expansion They consider that a lower dynamism in the credit portfolio is due to the fact that last year the banks placed historic amounts of money in financing.
“There is a contraction because they come from record levels and can no longer be placing at the same pace. A lower interest rate is more attractive to the possibility of contracting credit and even so, the level and impact it already has on the purchasing power of “People will have an impact on whether or not they accept a new loan,” Ariel Méndez, stock market analyst at Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (Bx+), said in an interview.
Banks generally have three categories for making loans: government, consumer (which is credit to people via credit cards or cars) and business.
Méndez considers that in the face of an election year in which the economy is expected to grow at rates just above 1%, there will be fewer productive projects and, therefore, less need for financing.
The same Association of Banks of Mexico (ABM) has recognized that given the slowdown of the economy there will be less credit placement, although the hope is that, with the reduction of interest rates by Bank of Mexico, the productive sector have an appetite for credit.
Estimates from BBVA México, the largest bank by number of assets and loans, expects that in 2025 credit growth will only be in the single digits. “National private investment is important and we are seeing a slowdown in wholesale credit and consumption due to lower employment growth,” said Eduardo Osuna, president and CEO of BBVA.
The contraction of the portfolio also responds to the fact that due to the change of six-year terms, government projects and financing are paused.
Both BBVA and Banorte, the two banks that lend the most to the government, highlighted in their quarterly report that they expect credit in this segment to consolidate towards 2025 and, especially in 2026, when the government launches its infrastructure plans.
Profits in banking
Given the slowing economic environment in which it is estimated that there could be an increase in bank delinquencies, Ve por Más considers that one of the challenges for the banks’ net profit will be the control of delinquencies, via financial reserves. .
“For example, Banorte and Regional have maintained their level of bad debts quite well, some other (banks) have increased it, but it has been partial, but for the same reason it impacts the financial reserves that they have to cover,” Méndez added.
In the third quarter, Scotiabank, HSBC and Banorte were the ones that reduced the dynamism in net income with single-digit growth.
