The start of the year invariably arrives loaded with optimism: we are excited by the opportunities ahead, while we hope not to make the same mistakes as previous years and – now yes – to capitalize on the positive circumstances that arise.
At the international level, economic, political and military analyzes are published for each region, in addition to a proliferation of articles that suggest what topics to follow throughout 2023 or what situations will affect the international future to a greater or lesser extent.
Beyond the anecdotal, what is a fact is that this year will be very important on certain issues, and the decisions that arise will have implications for Mexico. I highlight four events in particular:
The continuation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: in February 2023 this conflict will celebrate its first year, which many analysts would have dismissed at the start of hostilities. Without knowing how much longer it can last, the truth is that the war has forever changed the production, investment and supply decisions of companies worldwide. Although the impact of the conflict on the increase in inflation was substantial, by 2023 it is anticipated that said impact will have attenuated. However, this aggression is by far the most relevant geopolitical risk, and an escalation in the intensity of the war would be very worrying for the economy, supply chains and inflation.
China under Xi Jinping’s third term: Although everyone expected Xi Jinping to receive a third term, prior to the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party last October, rumors circulated on social media that the Chinese leader had been detained; None of this was true, but it served to encourage doubts and questions about what China will be like in this new stage. Some outlines seem to emerge, including the continuation of its economic and security policies, which will surely continue to cause tensions with various countries around the world, mainly with the United States. If this continues causing the relocation of investments, Mexico would benefit indirectly.
The Latin American pendulum: this year there will be several important electoral processes in the region, but for Mexico the presidential elections in Argentina and Guatemala are particularly relevant. In Argentina, which is an important commercial partner of our country, the first opposition option would seem to be Horacio R. Larreta, current head of the city of Buenos Aires (although Mauricio Macri is speculated to return), while the ruling party would opt for Sergio Massa, who occupies the always very important portfolio of Minister of Economy.
Finally, some characters ponder a candidacy further from the establishment, such as Javier Milei. In Guatemala, the voters’ choice will be no less difficult, as at least 10 politicians are seeking the presidency, including the likes of former congresswoman Zury Ríos (daughter of former President Efraín Ríos Montt). This country shares a land border with Mexico, and is a key point for issues such as migration.
A divided US Congress: although the Republicans did not manage to gain control of both chambers as they anticipated, and the election of the speaker of the House of Representatives exhibited its internal fissures, it is a fact that the Congress that began a few days ago will try to print its partisan dynamics on the legislative agenda. For Mexico, this will surely imply greater scrutiny, in addition to repeated calls for the White House to take more energetic measures against our country. We must not forget that the bilateral agenda is so extensive that practically every day we have something to talk about, be it economic, trade, migration or security issues.
Mexico is a major player at the international level, due to our geographical position, size of the economy, trade flows and as an investment destination. To reinforce this role at the international level, we must pay attention to the phenomena that will set the guidelines to follow in 2023, since opportunities and conflicts will largely arise from that context.
*The author is an academic from the Universidad Panamericana; Prior to that, he had a twenty-year career in the federal government dealing with international trade negotiations.
Twitter: @JCBakerMX
