In just over a week, El País will know how the economy closed in 2024 and how much the gross domestic product grew for a year marked by the deceleration and the tax farms that derived from the fall in the tax collection, that although it managed to stabilize and correct part of the fall at the end, it did not meet the projected goals.
Factors such as disparate growth between sectors, spending cut that he took strength to the impulse of the State to the economy and the persistent distrust of some investment capitals; They were fundamental during this validity, so many are now waiting to know how the final balance will look.
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Regarding what to expect from this report, there are visions found in the market in the face of the force of the rebound, since there are those who remain that the country will grow above 2% and others, more cautious, they have said that it will be around 1, 8%. Regardless of the result, the truth is that Colombia will accumulate another year of growth under the average.
A minor advance
This week, the Bancolombia group revealed its NOWCAST report and there they point out that after thoroughly reviewing the various indicators of economic activity in the country, they consider that the start of the year will not bring surprises and that projections against what should be expected for January are conservative.
“Our indicator registered an annual 0.9% growth estimated for the mobile quarter finished in January 2025. This means a change in tendency to the result of DIC-24 2.2% (decreased down from 2.5 %). Under this panorama, the economy began 2025 on expansion field, but with a remarkably lower dynamism, ”they said.
Colombian economy
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Regarding its estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024they indicated that the growth of GDP for this period, from its indicator, will be 2.2% per year, a situation that for them is a sign of a sign of “light greater optimism” in the expectation of the analyst consensus, who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – who – on average- they foresee that the activity expanded at a rate of 2.1% per year in the final balance of 2024.
“The series adjusted by seasonal effect of our Nowcast index reflects an expansion, but with less dynamic, compared to the previous month. A monthly advance of 0.4% was observed in January, less December expansion rate (1.0%). Consequently, the annual variation (compared to January 2024) was 0.9%, ”they said.
These researchers closed highlighting that “the sectoral balance of the mobile quarter until the first month of 2025 is more conservative. The growth of the trade and financial sectors slowed down the previous mobile quarter. In contrast, although even on contractive field, Manufacturing and communications showed recoveries during the start of the year. ”
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Strengthened recovery
So far, the last report in the field of economic dynamics is the data of the ISE for November, revealed by the DANE at the end of last month. There it was evidenced that the country’s economic rhythm had a franton at that time and that agriculture lost the strength that it showed throughout 2024.
However, César Pabón, director of Economic Research at Corfiargues that this bad step will be momentary and that within their equipment they maintain a consolidated growth projection of 1.8% for the closure of 2024, which suggests an expansion in December greater than 2.4% after the idle of 0 , 6% in November.
Economic growth
Courtesy – API
“In fact, the energy demand figures, a leading indicator of economic activity, show an annual growth of 0.9%, after having contracted 1.4% in November. Likewise, vehicle sales grew 22% annually in December, compared to 10% registered in November, ”he said.
This analyst added that “it is still early to learn about the January figures. However, it is important to note that this month, seasonally, is usually one of the weakest. In fact, the energy demand registered a 0.5% annual drop in January 2025 ”.
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The ISE data for November showed that the annual growth rate was just 0.4%, which, although it remains in positive terrain, marks a decrease in progress, since for the same period it had been 2 , 7% and a month ago (October 2024) its registration had been 3%.
Thus, Camilo Pérez, Chief of Economic Research of the Bank of Bogotá, recalled that in 2024 the recovery of the economy was strengthened, after a quite disappointing 2023 and is also played by a data of 1.8% By 2024, which in its concept is much better than expected at the beginning of the year.
The context of the reforms are expectant to the market.
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“Despite this advance and that improvement in the performance of economic activity, it should be noted that a wide divergence between sectors persists. We have some such as industry, construction, which are quite lagging, even with falls still in annual terms, while the service sectors, mainly entertainment issues, fun, things like tourism, maintain quite accelerated dynamics and are those that in They finally gave the main contribution to the economy, ”he said.
Finally, Juan David Robayo, Senior Analyst of Economic Research In Itaú Colombia, he said that the last quarter of 2024 has had mixed behaviors, with an October where the economy had a highlightable growth of 3.0%, but an November where we grew only 0.4%; What for them is not a minor matter.
“In December, in Itaú we hope that the economy has grown between 1 and 2%, this would lead to the growth of all 2024 of the economy to be close to 2%. For January, we hope to see that the reactivation of the trade sector continues, which has been reflecting a better dynamic in recent months, but where the lag of economic reactivation will still follow is in key sectors, ”he said.
The balance of the gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be known next Monday, February 17, according to the Dane calendar. There, finally It will be known how much cost the country the slowdown and loss of economic rhythm.
