The Central Bank (BC) estimate for inflation in 2023 rose from 4.6% to 5%. The forecast for 2022 increased from 5.8% to 6%. The projections are in the Inflation Report, released today (15), in Brasilia, by BC.
For 2024, the revision was from 2.8% to 3% and, for 2025, it remains at 2.8%.
The probability that inflation will exceed the target tolerance limit is close to 100% this year and 57% in 2023.
The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) for 2022 is 3.5%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points. In this way, inflation, according to the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), could be between 2% and 5% this year.
For 2023, the CMN established a target of 3.25% for the IPCA, also with a 1.5 percentage point tolerance. Thus, the index may close next year between 1.75% and 4.75%.
In the report, the BC says that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) “will remain vigilant, assessing whether the strategy of maintaining the basic interest rate for a sufficiently prolonged period will be able to ensure the convergence of inflation”.
The Selic is the Central Bank’s main instrument for keeping official inflation under control.
“The Committee reinforces that it will persevere until it consolidates not only the disinflation process but also the anchoring of expectations around its targets”, he pointed out. But the committee reinforced that it may increase the Selic rate again if inflation does not fall as expected.
On the last 7th, the Copom maintained the Selic rate at 13.75% per annum. This was the third time in a row that the Central Bank has not changed the rate, which has remained at this level since August.