The possible change in the qualification does not respond to an operational improvement. Fitch maintains the company’s base note in ‘CCC-‘, dragged by extreme leverage, fragile liquidity and a deteriorated operational structure. However, the new support program confirms what until now only appeared intermittently: an explicit will of the Mexican State to keep your company afloat.
The announced operation allows Pemex to refinance maturity, gain some air and reinforce its formal link with the Ministry of Finance. Fitch anticipates that, if the transaction culminates successfully, it will adjust its assessment on the quality of government support. The evaluation of support would go from “not solid enough” to “strong”, which, according to the internal models of the qualifier, would allow to upload the note of Pemex Dos Punges, to the category ‘BB’.
The adjustment would not be limited to financial support. The recent reforms allow the oil company to operate under a roof of shared debt with the Treasury, which, in practical terms, reinforces government supervision on its strategic decisions. This new scheme could cause an additional improvement in the qualification, by raising the subfactor of “decision -making” of “strong” to “very strong.”
Even so, Pemex’s financial statement remains in unstable land. In the first quarter of 2025, the total debt amounts to 101,500 million dollars. In interest only, the company Eroga 2,000 million, an amount equivalent to almost half of its quarterly Ebitda. Fitch estimates that his leverage will continue over 15 times on the qualification horizon. And although the refinancing operation would relieve immediate pressure, the financial profile will continue on the tightrope.
The qualification also drags non -financial risk factors. The poor environmental, social and governance history (ESG) charges a growing weight in the Fitch evaluation. The qualifier highlights the multiple fires in key assets, the leaks in pipelines and injuries to workers such as events that erode Pemex’s operational and reputational trust. The management strategy received an ‘5’ relevance score, the highest in the negative impact scale.
For years, the company has operated under a sub -investment regime. The accumulated deterioration of key assets in UPSTREAM and Downstream has resulted in a persistent production drop, greater losses in the refining business and a high operational risk. The current administration insists on limiting the production of crude oil and deepening the refining, a strategy that compromises financial flexibility and keeps alive the need for public bailouts.
For Fitch, the message is clear: structural deterioration continues, but the federal government’s commitment makes a difference. The hope of a credit improvement is not based on Pemex’s health, but on the armor offered by the sovereign. The market observes carefully. Pemex must still demonstrate that it can transform political support into financial stability.
