The tax rule that establishes a deficit of 2.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025 will not be met next year, said the manager of the BCP Economic Studies Area, Carlos Prieto. In this way there would be three consecutive years of non-compliance.
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“Our estimates suggest that the fiscal deficit will close 2024 at 3.8% of GDP and 2025 at 2.6%, the latter again above the 2025 fiscal rule. A significant reduction in the fiscal deficit will be observed during the income tax regularization campaign. , in the face of important profits from mining companies in a context of peak export prices in 2024,” he said.
What will perform well, at least during the first months of next year, is economic performance. The BCP representative indicated that growth between the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 will be between 3.5% and 4%.
This result will be driven by controlled inflation and recovery of real wages, lagged effects of a less restrictive monetary policy, business expectations in the optimistic range this year, and favorable profit distribution in March 2025, which boosts consumption.
However, the BCP maintains its projection of 2.8% growth for next year, in a context marked by the start of the 2026 electoral campaign, and the tension between the United States and China, the country’s main trading partners.
In that sense, Prieto indicated that the recovery will depend on linking with medium and long-term private investment decisions, a limited impact of the pre-electoral environment, and a limited impact of renewed trade and geopolitical tensions on the economy.
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