In the middle of a year marked by strong economic movements, the Colombian labor market closed the first semester of 2025 with mixed results in which on the one hand, the unemployment rate remained in a single digit for the tenth consecutive month and the lowest figures were reached for a month of June in the last decade and on the other, persists A lag compared to the levels of participation and occupation that were recorded before the pandemic.
This is revealed by the most recent economic comment of the Anif Economic Studies Center, which also warns about an emerging risk for the remainder of the fiscal pressures of the central government and Its possible effects on productive activity and the ability to generate new jobs.
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As indicated in a recent report, in June 2025, the unemployed unemployment rate was 8.9%, with a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to May. This figure consolidates a favorable trend, maintaining the indicator in a single digit for tenth month followed; While at the run of the year, the average unemployment is located at 9.1%, that is, 1.4 percentage points
less than in the same period of 2024.
Likewise, in the original series, which does not adjust seasonal factors, unemployment 1.7 percentage points fell in annual terms, from 10.3% in June 2024 to 8.6% in June 2025; So Anif emphasizes that this is the best record for a sixth month of the year since 2015, when 8.5%had been reached.
The government’s cash crisis could take its toll on the labor market.
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More employment, less unemployed
The report explains that the improvement in the indicator is associated with a growth rate greater than that of the global participation rate (TGP), which reflects that more people are finding employment against those who are looking for one. In the first semester of 2025, the occupied population grew 3.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, while the number of unemployed was reduced 11.5%.
This performance, however, has nuances in which, although employment has grown, the unstacted average participation rate of the first semester is located at 64.2%, even 2.2 percentage points below the average observed between 2015 and 2019 (66.4%). This means that, although more people are working, There are still less people participating in the labor market than before the health crisis.
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Meanwhile, the occupation rate also presents a gap compared to the prepaandia period and while in January-June 2015-2019 this indicator was 59.9%, in the same period of 2025 is 1.5 percentage points lower.
Anif identified three branches of activity as the main leaders of the growthInteither of employment in the first six months of 2025, starting with commerce, which contributed 0.62 percentage points to the Tota increase. Here in the list, accommodation and food services appear, with 0.58 points and public administration, with 0.54 points.
The government’s cash crisis could take its toll on the labor market.
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In contrast, two sectors subtracted dynamism from the generation of employment, which were financial activities (-0.10 points) and artistic activities (-0.09 points).
“This employer shows that a good part of the additional employment came from sectors with high demand for labor and an important component of services, while more specialized segments or linked to cultural and creative activities had weak performance, ”they explained.
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Marked regional differences
The cities analysis also throws disparate results if it is reviewed that in the April-June mobile quarter of 2025, the city with the greatest reduction in its unemployment rate compared to the same period of 2024 was Florence, with a fall of 6.4 percentage points and that at the other end, Neiva was the only one among the 23 main cities and metropolitan areas that recorded an increase in its unemployment in this same period.
“These contrasts reflect that, although national figures show a tendenciIn positive, labor market conditions remain heterogeneous and depend on local factors such as productive structure, ongoing investments and sector dynamism, ”said Anif.
The government’s cash crisis could take its toll on the labor market.
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For these experts, the labor market in the first semester of 2025 has shown relevant advances in the recovery of employment, partly promoted by a better economic performance in the recent past. However, the comparison with the indicators of before the pandemic makes it clear that there is still a way to go to achieve full recovery.
The lower labor participation and occupation still below the 2015-2019 levels suggest that there are people who have remained Outside the labor market or have not found the right conditions to re -enter.
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In this way, the Center for Studies projects that the average unemployment rate in 2025 will be 9.2%, a percentage point less than 10.2% observed in 2024; An improvement that relies on the impulse that certain sectors have had and in the continuity of the descending trend of recent months.
However, Anif warns about a factor that could stop this dynamic and it is the fiscal pressure of the central government; Since according to the analysis, the adjustment needs in public accounts could lead to the adoption of spending reduction policies, which in turn would affect economic activity and, therefore, employment.
The government’s cash crisis could take its toll on the labor market.
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This risk becomes relevant in a context in which public investment and labor market support programs can be decisive to sustain the recovery rate. A cut in these areas, motivated by the need to contain the fiscal deficit, could reverse part of the progress made in 2025.
In this way, they closed stating that the balance for the first half of 2025 is clear and suggests that there are reasons for optimism, but also alert signs; since the reduction of unemployment to levels not seen in a decade and the growth of employment in key sectors are undeniable achievements; But persistence Of gaps compared to prepaandemics levels in participation and occupation, it should be reviewed carefully.
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To this is added a fiscal panorama that, if not handled carefully, could become an obstacle to employment growth and that is why the decisions taken in public spending in the coming months will have a decisive weight in the course of the labor market and in the possibility of closing the gaps that still persist.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
