More than two months have passed since the Ministry of Finance filed before the Congress of the Republic the financing bill with which it seeks to obtain the money it needs in the General Budget of the Nation for 2025 and Although he has insisted on the importance of carrying out this initiative, the path is increasingly thorny.
Although there have already been several meetings between the National Government and the congressmen of the economic commissions, in which the technical arguments were made known why the initiative is viable and must be carried out, so far only one public hearing has been held, in the Senate, where the analysts gave points in favor and against the articles, but they agreed that it is not the time to implement this change.
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That it could deepen the economic slowdown, that it would discourage the creation of new companies, that it does not go hand in hand with the country’s fiscal reality and that beyond a tax change, a spending cut is needed to avoid generating new risks regarding the rule. fiscal, are some of the arguments of those who do not support the project.
However, Minister Ricardo Bonilla assures that the initiative only takes advantage of the fact that there are “historical errors” in the tax statute and that by correcting these mistakes, they are betting on the generation of those $12 billion that are needed to guarantee attention. of vulnerable communities, encourage investment and bring the state offer to the entire territory.
Financing bill.
“Additional resources are being sought, but they are being sought in the loopholes left by the tax statute, correcting historical errors that this norm has, setting and leveling the table in terms of different aspects,” said Bonilla González; for whom it must be recognized that the fiscal rule has been fulfilled.
Complex path
In order to know what the project is about, Portafolio spoke with a sources of Congress and the National Government, who showed that although there is a spirit of cordiality between the parties, for now it has not been possible to reach concrete agreements that will unblock its process and possibly everything will be defined in “photo finish” during extraordinary sessions.
Firstly, the Legislature said that the biggest complication is that in the House of Representatives there are some congressmen who do not want to sign the resolution necessary to convene joint sessions of the Third and Fourth Committees, which is essential for the project to be approved. advance quickly.
It should be noted that the session period for the second half of the year ends on December 16 and if by then the endorsement of the Senate and the House is not obtained, the financing law will fail and if it is wanted to be presented again, must be done as a tax reform, since it would not serve to finance the 2025 National Budget.
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That said, the Ministry of Finance has less than three weeks left, in ordinary times, for Congress to advance its proposal, while it is not ruled out that they should call extraordinary sessions. However, by having to hold the debates separately between the Senate and the House, more time will be required and that is something that is not currently available.
Taking into account the above, the Government has insisted in that the economic sessions be called as soon as possible, but jointly, encountering some resistance from some political sectors, with whom we have spoken on more than one occasion. During the last meeting, held on November 10, the article on the green fiscal rule was reached and had to be lifted because the majority of congressmen withdrew.
Portafolio also learned that in terms of the legislative environment, the House seems more willing to consider some points of the reform, while the Senate maintains a more rigid position; Therefore, disagreements between both corporations have generated tensions, and spirits are not at their best. In turn generating some concerns in the National Government.
Colombian pesos
A cut in scope
As explained so far by the Ministry of Finance, the financing law has three main fronts to work on, starting from stimuli for economic reactivation, the identification of sources of tax revenue and the adjustment of the fiscal rule. Nevertheless, It is good to make it clear that more than 45% of this initiative depends on bringing forward the rule.
To better understand this point, regarding the taxes that will add resources to the Nation, there are the modifications to the Personal Income Tax that will generate $900,000 million in 2025, to the Wealth Tax that will contribute $875,000 million, as well as the already mentioned of games of chance, which next year will contribute $2.07 billion. The tax on online games of luck and chance will be the main bet.
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Now, in Congress there are different estimates, in which after the adjustments a much smaller collection could be achieved, of between $6 billion and $7 billion, generating a gap for them that will make it difficult to consolidate a comprehensive reform and highlights the need for a clear and concerted legislative strategy.
Ministry of Finance and Public Credit
According to the legislative sources who spoke with Portafolio, to meet the deadlines, the law must be voted on in the first debate next week, and in the second debate before Monday, December 16, although they consider that it is most likely that extra sessions will have to be called to to define everything and that the Minhacienda should not resort to postponements in spending if it is not approved.
With the Senate public hearing held, it is expected that between Monday and Tuesday of next week the Chamber hearing will be held and in this way the entire process will be completed so that it can be decided whether the project will finally It will be voted on in joint sessions or, on the contrary, it will be defined in separate procedures.
