The Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Diego Guevara, presented this Friday, February 7, the update of the financial plan of 2025, In the projections of the main economic variables for this year and in which the Government reduced its growth goal.
In his speech, Guevara estimated that the Colombian economy in 2024 would have reported a growth of 1.8% and that In 2025 GDP would grow 2.6%.
The updated figure is lower than the projection of GDP in the medium -term fiscal framework, which by 2025 is 3.0%.
For Minister Guevara, although the figure of GDP in the Financial Plan is lower than the medium -term fiscal framework, it represents “The consolidation of the beginning of a sustainable path of economic recovery”.
According to the head of the Treasury portfolio, this transit towards the consolidation of a recovery path would be given by the favorable behavior of domestic demand and exports.
It also estimates that consumption and investment will be favored on account of lower levels of inflation and interest rates.
Likewise, Minister Guevara said that the deficit of the Central National Government closed 2024 in 6.8% of GDP, data “which is consistent with compliance with the fiscal rule”.
According to the head of the Treasury portfolio, This behavior was mainly due to an annual reduction of 2.3 points in income, combined with an increase of 0.3 points of GDP in expenses.
Guevara also explained that as tax revenues fell $ 18.5 billion in 2024 in nominal terms with respect to 2023, these were considered as transactions of the only time they do not deteriorate the structural net primary balance.
“Never before in history there had been such an important fall in collection levels and that is not usually traditional in the economic cycle. There is a justification of a phenomenon of one time. This primary expense is aligned with the full fulfillment of the Discal rule ”held.
Financial plan 2025.
Fiscal deficit for 2025
For its part, by 2025, it is estimated that the fiscal deficit will be reduced to 5.1% of GDP, “in full compliance with the fiscal rule.”
For the Government, the largest projected deficit responds to the expected increase in interest spending.
“The 2025 scenario also contemplates a primary spending postpone In line with the inertial recovery of the tax collection and a greater collection by management.said Minhacienda.
Inflation would converge to the target range
Likewise, Finance Minister Diego Guevara presented inflation forecasts for this year and stressed that the figure would converge to the target range.
Macroeconomic forecasts indicate that in 2025, inflation would close at 3.6%, a figure greater than 3.2% of the medium -term fiscal framework, as a consequence of a lower rhythm of decrease in the monetary policy rate by international risks .
“The correction of inflation towards the target rank in 2025 would be explained mainly by the lagging effects of the contractive monetary policy implemented by the Bank of the Republic over recent years and by the dissipation of offer clashes that would allow correction In food prices “, Guevara explained.
Dollar closure and oil
On the forecasts of the exchange rate, the Government estimates that the dollar would close on average this 2025 at $ 4,360 and the barrel of oil in $ 74.3, price less than the $ 80 they projected in the fiscal framework of the previous medium term.
Portfolio
