Of the four items that make up the Focus Bulletin, three kept their projections for 2025 stable: Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate and basic interest rate (Selic). The only variation in financial market expectations was related to the country’s official inflation, which fell to 4.72%.
A week ago, expectations were that the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA, which measures the country’s inflation) would close the year at 4.80%. Four weeks ago, projections were at 4.83%.
For subsequent years, market projections for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) have remained stable for weeks both for 2026 (4.28%) and 2027 (3.9%). The Focus Bulletin was released this Monday (13) by the Central Bank.
The inflation estimate for 2025 remains above the ceiling of the target that should be pursued by the BC.
Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the target is 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper limit is 4.5%.
IBGE
According to the country’s official inflation preview, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in September prices increased by 0.48%. The result is mainly due to the rise in the price of electricity.
Therefore, in the 12 months (ended in September), the IPCA reached 5.17%, even though, in the previous month, the index was negative, at -0.14% – which characterizes a situation of deflation, when prices retreat, becoming cheaper.
The inflation preview shows that food prices fell for the fourth month in a row. In September, the drop was 0.35% and an impact of -0.08 pp. In August, the drop was 0.53%.
Selic
To achieve the inflation target, the BC uses as its main instrument the basic interest rate (Selic), set at 15% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). This is the same percentage projected by Focus for 16 consecutive weeks.
For the years 2026 and 2027, the Focus Bulletin projects a reduction in this rate to 12.25% and 10.50%, respectively.
Uncertainties
The uncertainties of the external economic scenario and indicators that show moderation in internal growth are among the factors that led to the maintenance of the Selic. According to the Copom, the current interest rate should be maintained “for a very long period” to ensure that the inflation target is achieved.
When Copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this has an impact on prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and encourage savings. But, in addition to the Selic, banks consider other factors when defining the interest charged to consumers, such as risk of default, profit and administrative expenses.
Therefore, higher rates can also make it difficult for the economy to expand. When the Selic rate is reduced, credit tends to become cheaper, encouraging production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
GDP
Stability also in relation to financial market expectations for the country’s economy. According to the Focus Bulletin, for the fifth consecutive week, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to represent the sum (in monetary values) of all final goods and services produced in the Brazilian country to close the year 2025 with a growth of 2.16%.
For 2026, for four weeks in a row the market has been projecting economic growth of 1.80%. For the year 2027, growth projections fell from 1.90% to 1.83%, from last week to the current one.
Exchange
The dollar is expected to cost R$5.43 at the end of 2025, according to market projections. Four weeks ago, expectations were that the North American currency would be sold at R$5.50.
For the end of 2026, expectations are, for the third consecutive week, of a fall in the price of the United States currency. Four weeks ago, market projections were at R$5.60. For 2027, projections are that the dollar will close the year at R$5.51. Four weeks ago, projections were at R$5.60.
