The financial market increased its inflation forecast for 2022 for the sixth consecutive time. According to the projection of the Focus Bulletinreleased today (21) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close this year at 5.56%.
a week ago market projection was that inflation ended the year at 5.5%. Four weeks ago the forecast was 5.15%.
For 2023, the market maintained last week’s expectation regarding the evolution of the IPCA. This week’s projection points to an inflation of 3.5%. Four weeks ago, the projection was for inflation of 3.4% next year.
As for 2024, the market raised its inflation forecast to 3.09%, compared to the 3.04% projected last week.
Published weekly, the Focus Bulletin gathers the market projection for the main economic indicators of the country. In this week’s projection, the Focus also maintained the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded seven days ago. The new projection is for GDP growth of 0.3% in 2022. Four weeks ago, the market predicted a 0.29% growth in the Brazilian economy.
For 2023, the Focus also recorded the same GDP expectation as last week, of 1.5%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that GDP would grow 1.69% in 2023. For 2024, the projection remained stable, remaining at 2%.
Selic
The market maintained the forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. In the projection released this Monday, the Selic should end the year at 12.25%. Four weeks ago, the projection was that interest rates would stay at 11.75%.
At the beginning of the month, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) increased the interest rate from 9.25% to 10.75% per year. In a statement, the Copom indicated that it will continue to raise basic interest rates until inflation is controlled in the medium term.
By the end of 2023, the market estimate is that the base rate will drop to 8% per year. And for 2024, the forecast is for Selic at 7.38% per year, compared to 7.25% in the previous week’s projection.
Exchange
Market expectations for the dollar exchange rate in 2022 fell again, reaching R$5.50, compared to R$5.58 projected last week. For the next year, the market forecast also decreased, from R$5.45 to R$5.36.
For 2024, the estimate for the price of the American currency decreased slightly for the third week in a row, from R$5.32 projected last week, to R$5.30.
