The financial market raised its inflation forecast for next year for the 11th time in a row and that of the dollar for the ninth time in a row. According to financial market agents consulted by the Central Bank (BC), the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close 2025 at 4.96%. In the latest bulletin, released last week, the market predicted an IPCA of 4.86% for next year.
The forecast is contained in the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (30) by the Central Bank (BC). The weekly report brings together the expectations of financial market agents, such as investment banks, asset managers and other market institutions.
The Focus Bulletin’s estimate is more pessimistic than the official forecasts. The federal government estimates an IPCA of 3.1% for next year, according to the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2025 approved by the National Congress.
Dollar
For the ninth consecutive time, the Focus Bulletin raised its dollar price forecast for 2025. According to the report, the currency is expected to cost, on average, R$5.96 next year. A week ago, the Focus Bulletin estimated a dollar at R$5.90. In turn, the LDO approved in Parliament foresees an average exchange rate of R$4.98 for next year.
On the other hand, this week the Focus Bulletin maintained its forecast for the 2025 Selic rate, which is the basic interest rate defined by the Central Bank. The market maintained the estimate of a Selic at 14.75% per year in 2025. Currently, the Selic is at 12.25% per year.
However, the Bulletin raised the Selic forecast for 2026, when it estimates that the rate will be 12% per year. Last week, the market estimated that the Selic in 2026 would be at 11.75%.
In relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Focus Bulletin predicts a growth of 1.8% in 2025. A week ago, the market estimated a GDP of 1.9% next year. This is the second week in a row that the financial market has reduced the GDP estimate for 2025. According to official numbers predicted in the LDO, GDP in 2025 will be 2.5%.
