The forecast of the financial market for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the official inflation of the country, went from 5.5% to 5.51% this year. The estimate is in the Focus newsletter this Monday (3), a survey released weekly by the Central Bank (BC), with the expectation of financial institutions for the main economic indicators. Four weeks ago the projection was that inflation would close the year at 4.99%.
For 2026, the projection of inflation also rose from 4.22% to 4.28%. For 2027 and 2028, forecasts are 3.9% and 3.74%, respectively.
The estimate for this year is above the ceiling of the inflation target that should be pursued by the BC, defined by the 3%National Monetary Council (CMN), with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage point up or down. That is, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper 4.5%.
Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced in the country), the projection of the financial market is 2.06% this year, the same last week. Four weeks ago, it was expected that the growth in the economy would close the year by 2.02%.
For 2026, the bulletin shows a 1.72%GDP growth projection. Already for 2027 and 2028, the projection of expansion of the economy is 1.96% and 2%, respectively.
Fees
Regarding the basic interest rate, Selic, Focus maintained last week’s projection of 15% for this year, a projection that has been held for four weeks.
For 2026, the projection of the financial market is that Selic is 12.5%. For 2027, the projection is a interest rate of 10.38% and 10% in 2028.
To achieve the inflation target, the Central Bank uses Selic as its main instrument, elevated to 13.25% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)last week.
This was the fourth high in Selic, which has been at the highest level since September 2023, when it was also 13.25% per year. The collegiate increased to Selic in 1 percentage point, with the justification of uncertainties around inflation and the global economy, the recent high dollar and public spending.
THE measure was criticized by the Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinhoduring a press conference to present the result of job creation in Brazil, which closed the year 2024 with a positive balance of 1,693,673 formal jobs.
Higher interest rates make credit more expensive and discourage production and consumption. In addition, higher rates make economic growth difficult.
Exchange
Regarding the exchange rate, the quotation forecast is $ 6 for this year, the same projection for 2026. For 2027, the exchange should also fall, according to Focus, to $ 5.93, rising again to $ 6 , in 2028.
