THE financial market provides for growth of 2.16% of the Brazilian economy to 2025, Percentage below 2.19% projected a week ago for Gross Domestic Product – GDP, the sum of all wealth produced in Brazil.
This indicates the Focus Bulletin, released on Monday (8) by the Central Bank (BC). For subsequent years, the forecast of the market is that the economy grows 1.85%in 2026; and 1.88% in 2027.
THE Brazilian GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Brazilian Institute of Statistics Geography (IBGE), a result that reached “the Highest level in the historical series, which began in 1996”, Although it represents slowdown compared to the 1.3% growth observed in the first quarter.
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Inflation
Regarding the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA, the country’s official inflation), the Focus Bulletin interrupted a fall trend that had been observed 14 weeks ago, maintaining the same prediction observed last week, 4.85%. Four weeks ago, the expectation of inflation for the year was 5.05%.
For 2026 and 2027, inflation estimates are smaller than those projected in previous weeks: 4.3% next year; and 3.94% in 2027. The previous week, the forecasts were 4.31% and 3.94%, respectively.
The estimate for 2025 is above the ceiling of the inflation target that must be pursued by the BC. Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the goal is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage point up or down. That is, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper 4.5%.
In July, pressured by the most expensive energy bill, the official inflation released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) closed at 0.26%, being the second month followed by falling food prices, which helped hold the index. Accumulated in 12 months, the IPCA reached 5.23%, above the target ceiling of up to 4.5%.
Selic
To achieve the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the main instrument the basic interest rate – Selic – defined at 15% per year by the BC monetary policy committee (COPOM). This percentage is also that projected by the newsletter 11 weeks ago.
For 2026 and 2027, the projection of the market for Selic also remains stable, at 12.5% and 10.5%, respectively.
The retreat of inflation and the beginning of the economy’s slowdown made the collegiate interrupt the interest rate increase at the last meeting in July, after seven high in Selic.
In a statement, the Copom reported that US trade policy has increased uncertainties over prices. The monetary authority then reported that, for now, it intends to maintain basic interest, but has not ruled out the possibility of raising Selic if necessary.
When the copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this causes reflexes in prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings.
You Banks consider other factors other than Selic when defining interest to be charged from consumers. These include the risk of default, profit and administrative expenses.
Thus, higher rates can also make it difficult to expand the economy. When the Selic rate is reduced the tendency is that credit is cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
Dollar
For the third week in a row, the Focus Bulletin reduces the dollar projected at the end of 2025. Expectation of the financial market is that the US currency closes the year quoted at R $ 5.55.
A week ago the projection was at $ 5.56; And four weeks ago was $ 5.60 – the same value projected for 2026 and 2027.
