For the second week in a row, the financial market lowers its inflation expectations for 2022. According to the Focus Bulletin, released today (11) by the Central Bank, this year’s Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should be 7.67 %. A week ago, this percentage was at 7.96%; and four weeks ago, at 8.5%.
The Focus Bulletin is a weekly publication that brings together the projection of around 100 market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators. For 2023, inflation expectations rose from 5.01% (forecast released last week) to 5.09%. It is the 14th consecutive high.
Four weeks ago the IPCA was at 4.7%. For 2024, the inflation projection has increased, from 3.25% to 3.3%. For 2025, the inflation projection has remained stable for 52 weeks, at 3%.
GDP
With regard to Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced in the country), this week’s Focus Bulletin increased from 1.51% (projection released last week) to 1.59% the growth forecast. Four weeks ago, the calculation was at 1.42%.
The estimated GDP for 2023 was stable compared to last week, 0.5%. Four weeks ago it was at 0.55%.
For 2024, the estimate presented today is 1.8%, compared to the 1.81% projected in the previous week. Four weeks ago, the growth percentage was 2%. For 2025, the GDP forecast has remained stable at 2% for 35 weeks.
Interest rate
The financial market kept the estimate for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022 stable at 13.75%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 13.25% for the end of the year.
The Selic forecast for 2023 also remained stable, compared to the figure presented a week ago, of 10.5%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was to close 2023 with a rate of 10%.
For 2024, the forecast is for a Selic rate of 8%. Last week it was forecast that the rate would close at 7.75% next year; and four weeks ago the figure was 7.5% – the same percentage predicted for 2025.
Dollar
The estimate for the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year showed an increase compared to last week, from R$ 5.09 to R$ 5.13. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that the US currency would close the year at R$5.01.
According to Focus, the dollar will close 2023 at R$5.10 – the same value as the previous week. Four weeks ago, the expectation was that the currency would present a price of R$ 5.05 at the end of next year.
The bulletin projects a price of BRL 5.06 for 2024, compared to BRL 5.07 projected a week ago; and the R$ 5.03 projected four weeks ago for the end of that year.
For 2025, the estimate is for a price of BRL 5.15 for the US currency, the same value seen in last week’s bulletin. Four weeks ago, the projected price was R$5.13.
