The financial market reduced, for the third consecutive week, the expectation for the inflation indices projected for 2022. According to the Focus Bulletin, released today (18), in Brasília, by the Central Bank, the year should end with the Price Index Broad Consumer (IPCA) at 7.54%. The IPCA is the country’s official inflation. Last week, the forecast was for an inflation of 7.67%; and four weeks ago, projections were at 8.27%.
For 2023, the inflation forecast has now increased from 5.09% to 5.20%. It is the 15th consecutive week of bullish forecasts for this index. Four weeks ago, inflation was estimated at 4.83% for next year. For the years 2024 and 2025 there are no differences in the inflationary estimates: 3.3% and 3%, respectively.
Boletim Focus is a weekly publication that brings together the projection of around 100 financial market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators.
GDP is high
For the third week in a row, estimates for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced in the country) show an increase. Last week, the estimate was for growth of 1.59% in 2022, a rate that rose to 1.75% this week. Four weeks ago, the financial market projected a GDP of 1.5% for the same year.
There were no changes in GDP projections for 2023, 2024 and 2025, compared to the indices presented last week. For 2023, the expectation is for a GDP of 0.5%. In 2024, the projection remains at 1.8%; and for 2025, by 2%.
Interest rate
The financial market kept stable, for the fourth consecutive week, the projections for the basic interest rate (Selic) for 2022, which should close the year at 13.75%. For 2023, 10.75% are forecast, a percentage above the one projected a week ago (10.5%).
Four weeks ago, the forecast was that 2023 would close with a Selic rate of 10.25%. For 2024 and 2025, the forecast remained stable: 8% and 7.5%, respectively.
Dollar
The calculation for the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year was stable compared to last week, with the US currency closing the year at R$5.13. Four weeks ago, the calculation was that the US currency would close at R$5.06.
Also according to the Focus Bulletin, the dollar will close 2023 at R$ 5.10 – the same value as the previous week. Four weeks ago, the expectation was that the coin would cost R$ 5.10 by the end of next year.
For 2024, the price expectation is slightly below the one projected last week, going from R$ 5.06 to R$ 5.05. It is the third week in a row that there is a forecast of a decline in the value of the US currency in comparison with the real.
Four weeks ago, the market predicted a price of R$5.07 to the dollar at the end of 2024. For 2025, it is expected to close at R$5.14. A week ago, the projection was that the currency would end the year quoted at R$ 5.15.
