The financial market forecasts inflation by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) at around 9% this year. The estimate is in the Focus Bulletin, released today (6) by the Central Bank (BC).
The median (disregarding the extremes of projections) of the last 30-day forecast predicts inflation at 8.89%. If a more recent period of five days is considered, the median is 9%.
For 2023, the projection is that inflation will remain at 4.39% (median of 30 days). In the projection that considers five days, the index is 4.5%.
Projections for this year are above the inflation target of 3.50%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points, that is, the lower limit is 2% and the upper limit is 5%. For 2023, the center of the target is 3.25%, with a range of 1.75% to 4.75%.
The Focus Bulletin brings together the projection of around 100 market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators.
This is the first publication of the bulletin, after five weeks of suspension, due to the strike by BC servers, which are still on paralysis. Today’s edition of the bulletin has partial information on financial market projections made until last Friday (3).
base interest
According to the bulletin, the basic interest rate, the Selic, should close the year at 13.25% per year (median of 30 days and five days). Currently, the Selic is at 12.75% per year.
For 2023, the market predicts that the Selic rate will remain at 9.75% per year (median of 30 days). At the five-day median, the forecast is 10.13% per year at the end of 2023.
Economic growth
In the partial bulletin, released this Monday, the market projects a growth, in 2022, of 1.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country. This is the median 30-day forecast. The five-day estimate was 1.5%. For the next year, the forecast is for a growth of 0.76% (30 days). Considering the last five days, the forecast drops to 0.47%.
Exchange rate
The Focus also brought the market’s expectation in relation to the exchange rate. For 2022, the dollar should remain at R$ 5.05 (30 days and five days). In 2023, the dollar is expected to remain stable (R$ 5.05), in the 30-day forecast, or to reach R$ 5.10, in the five-day estimate.
