The financial market has once again raised its inflation forecast for this year. According to a projection by the Focus Bulletin, released today (14) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – the country’s official inflation – should close 2022 at 5.50%. It is the fifth time that the market projects high inflation this year. A week ago, the market forecast was that inflation would end the year at 5.44%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 5.09%.
For 2023, the market maintained last week’s expectation regarding the evolution of the IPCA. The projection points to an inflation of 3.50% for next year. Four weeks ago, the projection was for inflation of 3.40%. For 2024, the market also raised its inflation forecast to 3.04% from the 3% projected last week.
GDP
The bulletin, published weekly, brings together the market forecast for the country’s main economic indicators. In this week’s projection, Focus kept the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the sum of all the riches produced in the country – recorded seven days ago. The projection is 0.30% in 2022. Four weeks ago, the market predicted a growth of 0.29% in the Brazilian economy.
Focus also registers, for the fourth week, a decrease in GDP growth expectation for 2023, from 1.53% last week to 1.50%. For 2024, the projection remained stable at 2%.
Interest rate and exchange
The market also raised the market forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. In the projection released this Monday, the market projected the Selic at 12.25% per year, compared to 11.75% per year. projected last week.
At the beginning of the month, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) increased the interest rate from 9.25% to 10.75% per year. In a statement, he indicated that he will continue to raise basic interest rates until inflation is controlled in the medium term.
By the end of 2023, the market estimate is that the base rate will drop to 8% per year. And for 2024, the forecast is for the Selic at 7.25% per year, compared to 7% in the previous week’s projection.
Market expectations for the dollar exchange rate in 2022 fell to BRL 5.58, compared to BRL 5.60 projected last week. For the next year, the market forecast also decreased, from R$ 5.50 to R$ 5.45.
For 2024, after a period of stability, the estimate for the price of the American currency decreased slightly for the second week in a row, from R$5.39 projected last week, to R$5.32.
