The financial market increased for the 15th week following the 2022 inflation forecast. According to the projection of the Focus Bulletin, released today (26) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close the year with a rise of 7 .65%. A week ago, the forecast for the index was at 7.46%, and four weeks ago, at 6.86%. 
The Focus Bulletin brings together the projection of around 100 market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators. It is published weekly. For 2023, the market also maintains the expectation of high inflation. The projection of the IPCA change went from 3.91% projected a week ago, to 4%, according to the bulletin published today by the monetary authority. Four weeks ago, the projection was at 3.80% for next year’s inflation.
Also high for the 2024 inflation forecast. According to the financial market, inflation will be at 3.20%, compared to the 3.16% projected last week. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that 2024 will have an inflation of 3.20%. For 2025, the forecast has remained stable for 41 weeks, at 3%.
GDP
This week’s Focus Bulletin increased the projection of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country) from 0.56% (forecast a week ago) to 0.65%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was for a GDP of 0.50%.
For 2023, the forecast is for growth of 1% in GDP. A week ago, the percentage was at 1.12%; and four weeks ago, at 1.30%. For 2024 and 2025, the forecast remained stable at 2%.
Interest rate
The financial market predicts an increase in the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 13%, rising to 13.05% per year, a week ago. In the bulletin released today, the forecast is that the rate will close the year at 13.25% per year.
For 2023, the expectation remains stable at 9% per year. There is also a forecast of rate stability in 2024 (7.50% per year) and in 2025 (7% per year).
Dollar
The estimate for the dollar price fell for the fifth consecutive week, with the forecast that it will close 2022 at R$5, compared to the R$5.10 forecast a week ago and the R$5.25 forecast four weeks ago.
According to Focus, the dollar will close 2023 at R$5. A week ago, the forecast was that the US currency would close the year at R$5.15. Four weeks ago, the expectation was that the currency would present a price of R$ 5.20.
There is also an expectation of a fall for the years 2024 and 2025. The projection for 2024 is that the currency will close the year at R$ 5.05. A week ago, the market worked with the expectation that the dollar would close 2024 at R$ 5.15; and four weeks ago, the projected price was R$5.20.
For 2025, the expectation, stable for four weeks at BRL 5.20, has dropped to BRL 5.10, according to the most recent bulletin.
